Research on the Influence of Quality-oriented Demographic Dividend Evolution on China's Economic Modernization in the Future

（Guangxi District Party School of CPC，Nanning 530021，Guangxi，China）

Abstract：Since 2017，in order to cope with the decline of quantitative demographic dividend in the whole country，many cities have taken the lead in "talent competition" war. The new round of competition for talents among cities is the emphasis and competition for quality-oriented demographic dividend；and the purpose of that is to occupy the core competitive advantage in the future economic development pattern. On the basis of the latest data of China's population division of the United Nations，the author believes that the first window phase of China’s demographic dividend began in 1990；in the year 2010，it achieved the peak；between 2010 and 2020，there was a small peak，which was then narrowed. At present，China is in a historical opportunity period of coexistence of quantity- oriented demographic dividend and quality- oriented demographic dividend. The qualityoriented demographic dividend will not be obtained naturally；there should be some supported economic and social policies；and it will be fundamentally determined by the construction and reform of supporting systems such as fertility，social security， pension，housing，medical care and so on. In the future 30 years，the contribution of labor participation rate to economic growth will change to be negative；the huge population base will become the burden of China’s economic sustainable growth and the high- quality development. Exploring and improving quality- oriented demographic dividend，and improving labor quality， especially the top- level labors，which will in turn improve the productivity of all the labors，is necessary and urgent. China should improve the quality of system supply to obtain the quality assurance of demographic dividend，and actively participate in opening up and cooperation to obtain the regional rebalancing of the quality-oriented demographic dividend to help realizing the “two centenary goals”.

Key words：quality-oriented demographic dividend；economic modernization；evolution；LMDI decomposition