60% expect violent clashes to worsen: Poll

The majority of respondents in a recent survey disapproved of radical protest behavior and predicted more serious physical clashes in the next three years, while an academic warned that the planned occupation of Central may end badly.

The poll, conducted by the Hong Kong Institute of AsiaPacific Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, interviewed 893 residents over three days following the second community forum held by the Chief Executive (CE).

The CE’s first forum in Tin Shui Wai on Aug 11 was plagued by clashes between supporters and opponents of the government. The “Occupy Central” campaign has also sparked concerns over more violent standoffs in future.

Be it pro- or anti- government, the poll showed 59 percent to 61 percent disapproved of protesters’ radical behavior. Similarly, 57.3 percent were anxious about potential frequent clashes.

58.5 percent predicted violent confrontation between protesters will worsen in the next three years. On the contrary, less than one-tenth (8.9 percent) showed optimism and a quarter felt the situation will not get better or worse.

Asked whether the current standoffs would lead to “largescale social riots”, responses were split.

More than one-third (37.6 percent) disagreed, while another third ( 33.6 percent) agreed and just over a quarter (26.8 percent) gave “half-half” as the answer.

Interestingly, only one-third (33.8 percent) agreed that such violence would not escalate because “most people in Hong Kong do not favor the use of violence”. But 30.2 percent were pessimistic and again, 31.5 percent picked “half-half”.

While the poll clearly highlighted public disapproval over radical protests regardless of political leaning, more disturbingly, one- third think largescale riots are likely to occur in the city.

Research associate Joanne Ip Chung-yan said that people might have seen the recent clashes as a “beginning” and they hold a “wait- and- see” attitude as they are uncertain about what happens next.

But Sung Lap-kung, political scientist at the City University of Hong Kong, said respondents might have turned optimistic about the possibility of avoiding a major riot after seeing the effective control of order outside the second community forum.

While the escalation of conflict in recent years has raised public concern, Sung believes the poll showed many are still confident of law-enforcement capability and believe radical factions will not riot.

Sung warned, however, that the Mong Kok standoff on Aug 4 between supporters of the police force and those of teacher Alpais Lam Wai- sze revealed how an occupation of Central might end badly.

Ho Lok-sang, director of the Center for Public Policy Studies at Lingnan University, said while he is concerned over the outcome of “Occupy”, the chance of the “occupation” turning into a catastrophic riot remains low.

“The people of Hong Kong essentially want peace, not violence, and large- scale rallies held over the years have been peaceful,” said Ho.