Military poised to intervene in Thailand: experts

Thailand’s military is increasingly expected to intervene to defuse the nation’s political crisis after Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and the anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban failed to agree on a compromise.

The current political crisis was triggered by the Yingluck government’s failed attempt last month to push through a controversial amnesty bill that would have paved the way for exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return.

Supporters of Suthep, a former lawmaker from the main opposition Democrat Party, have been engaged in large-scale street protests against the bill, demanding the resignation of Yingluck’s government.

Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha and other military leaders have so far remained noncommittal on measures to defuse the crisis, stating publicly that the military should not take sides in the dispute.

But some observers say the military may be tempted at some point to take action or act as a mediator between the opposing sides, particularly with the failure of negotiations between the parties.

Among them is academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun of Kyoto University’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies.

“The military might wait for a very opportune time to make a move to intervene in the affairs of the government, which might possibly be followed by a coup if they assume that the situation has turned to violence or the government can no longer control it,” he said.

He added that a military coup could not be ruled out if the military top brass believe that the civilian government has failed to put an end to the violence brought about by massive anti-government protests in the streets of Bangkok.

After all, the academic said, military coups are not new in Thailand, with some 18 coups taking place over the past 80 years. The most recent coup was in 2006, when senior military officers ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck’s elder brother.

Navy chief Admiral Narong Pipatanasai, Air Chief Marshal Prajin Juntong and General Prayuth are said to have joined the informal meeting between Yingluck and Suthep on Sunday, which was billed as an attempt to find a solution that would end the violence. During the meeting, Suthep asked Yingluck to hand over the government to a “people’s council” that would appoint a new prime minister.