Up­swing in for­eign trade fu­els optimism

China Daily (Hong Kong) - - FRONT PAGE - By JING SHUIYU in Bei­jing and YU RAN in Shang­hai Con­tact the writ­ers at jing­shuiyu@chi­nadaily.com.cn

China’s for­eign trade could con­tinue its up­swing early next year, af­ter both ex­ports and im­ports posted a sur­prise pickup in Novem­ber, ac­cord­ing to an­a­lysts.

For­eign trade vol­ume in­creased to 2.35 tril­lion yuan ($341.5 bil­lion) in Novem­ber, up by 8.9 per­cent year-on-year, ac­cord­ing to fig­ures re­leased by the Gen­eral Ad­min­is­tra­tion of Cus­toms on Thurs­day. Ex­ports grew by 5.9 per­cent year-on-year, and im­ports by 13 per­cent.

An­a­lysts said the data sig­naled that the na­tion’s for­eign trade sit­u­a­tion could im­prove early next year. The de­cline of ex­ports had grad­u­ally nar­rowed in the past sev­eral months be­fore the un­ex­pected turn.

“For the per­for­mance early next year, China’s ex­ports would be mainly af­fected by the United States. It is pro­jected that China’s ex­ports to the US could im­prove as the mar­ket is bullish on the United States’ eco­nomic re­cov­ery,” said Zhou Mi, a re­search fel­low at the Chi­nese Academy of In­ter­na­tional Trade and Eco­nomic Co­op­er­a­tion of the Min­istry of Com­merce.

“Bet­ter-than-ex­pected trade data out of China to­day re­flects both an uptick in global de­mand as well as the con­tin­ued strength of the do­mes­tic econ­omy,” said Ju­lian Evans-Pritchard, an econ­o­mist at Cap­i­tal Eco­nom­ics in Sin­ga­pore, on Thurs­day.

“De­spite to­day’s pos­i­tive sur­prise, the medium-term outlook for Chi­nese trade re­mains chal­leng­ing,” he told Bloomberg.

China’s Ex­port Lead­ing In­di­ca­tor grew by 1.3 mon­thon-month to 36.9, sug­gest­ing the down­ward pres­sure could be re­duced early next year, ac­cord­ing to the Gen­eral Ad­min­is­tra­tion of Cus­toms.

The in­dex is a monthly barom­e­ter to pre­dict China’s ex­port trend for the com­ing two or three months.

Ex­ports to the Euro­pean Union, China’s largest trad­ing part­ner, climbed by 1.5 per­cent in the first 11 months, while ex­ports to the US de­clined by 0.9 per­cent.

Tang Guanyu, chair­man of Wuxi ABC Zip­per Man­u­fac­turer Co, chose to in­vest 100 mil­lion yuan in three fac­to­ries to en­large man­u­fac­tur­ing abil­ity. He said he ex­pected this will add at least 300 mil­lion yuan to the value of out­put.

“Although I haven’t seen ob­vi­ous growth on ei­ther the over­seas or do­mes­tic mar­ket as the fig­ures showed, I be­lieve it is a great chance to buy man­u­fac­tur­ing en­ter­prises that are fac­ing fi­nan­cial con­straints but with po­ten­tial pro­duc­tion ca­pa­bil­ity,” said Tang.

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