Re­tail sales growth strong­est in a year

Fo­cus will shift to risk con­trol

China Daily (Hong Kong) - - FRONT PAGE - By XIN ZHIMING xinzhim­ing@chi­

China’s re­tail sales growth picked up to 10.8 per­cent year-onyear in Novem­ber, the high­est this year. This, to­gether with other im­prov­ing in­di­ca­tors, shows the econ­omy may be sta­bi­liz­ing, an­a­lysts said.

The re­tail sales growth is the high­est since De­cem­ber 2015, the Na­tional Bureau of Sta­tis­tics said on Tues­day. In the same month, in­dus­trial out­put rose by 6.2 per­cent year-on-year, up from 6.1 per­cent in­Oc­to­ber.

Ur­ban fixed-as­set in­vest­ment growth was 8.3 per­cent in the first 11 months, un­changed from the Jan­uary-Oc­to­ber pe­riod, while pri­vate in­vest­ment growth in­creased by 3.1 per­cent in the first 11 months, up from 2.9 per­cent in the first 10 months.

Those data show that “the econ­omy’s in­ter­nal growth mo­men­tum has moder­ately im­proved”, said Liang Hong, chief econ­o­mist of China In­ter­na­tional Cap­i­tal Corp. “Eco­nomic growth is ex­pected to re­main sta­ble (in com­ing months),” she said.

De­spite im­prov­ing in­di­ca­tors, pri­vate in­vest­ment, which to a large ex­tent in­di­cates the vi­tal­ity of t he cor­po­rate sec­tor, and home sales, which is a main driv- er of growth for China this year, have shown signs of weak­en­ing, cast­ing a shadow on the prospects of the Chi­nese econ­omy next year.

Growth of pri­vate in­vest­ment fell to 4.93 per­cent year-on-year in Novem­ber from 5.9 per­cent in Oc­to­ber, ac­cord­ing to a Reuters cal­cu­la­tion.

Growth in home sales slowed to the low­est rate in a year in Novem­ber as more cities tried to pre­vent prices from con­tin­u­ing to surge. New con­struc­tion starts rose by just 3.3 per­cent year-on-year after soar­ing by 20 per­cent in Oc­to­ber. “(The data) in­di­cate tight­en­ing

poli­cies in the sec­tor may have started to kick in,” said Zhao Yang, chief China econ­o­mist with No­mura Se­cu­ri­ties.

“We still need to wait for some months to mon­i­tor whether the econ­omy has re­ally been an­chored,” said Hu Shaowei, an econ­o­mist with the State In­for­ma­tion Cen­ter. “Home sales may sig­nif­i­cantly cool in the first quar­ter of next year and a se­ri­ous fall in real es­tate in­vest­ment could oc­cur even later,” he said.

As the econ­omy re­mains largely sta­ble, China’s mon­e­tary stance is ex­pected to re­main un­changed and fo­cus will be put on risk con­trol, said Liu Dongliang, an an­a­lyst with China Mer­chants Se­cu­ri­ties.

Also on Tues­day, the Min­istry of Fi­nance said China’s an­nual fis­cal rev­enue growth slowed to 3.1 per­cent in Novem­ber from 5.9 per­cent in Oc­to­ber. The slower growth was mainly due to a de­cline in tax rev­enues, which fell 2.5 per­cent in Novem­ber, down from a 7.2 per­cent gain in Oc­to­ber.

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