UK voters choose new leaders amid tensions
The UK will discover today whether its next government will be led by the Conservative or Labour Party, after a general election that follows a string of terror attacks.
About 40,000 polling stations in churches, schools and other buildings opened on Thursday amid unprecedented security. Police in London made three more arrests on Wednesday in connection with Saturday’s attacks, which left eight dead. The BBC reported that further arrests were made at dawn on Thursday in east London.
The first election results will emerge at about 6 am on Friday — Beijing time — and the final results by 1 pm.
British Prime Minister Theresa May greeted reporters on Thursday but said nothing as she cast her vote in Maidenhead, the constituency she represents. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn appeared more buoyant as he voted in north London. “Thank you very much, all of you, for coming here today. It’s a day of our democracy. I’ve just voted. I’m very proud of our campaign. Thank you very much,” he said.
British tabloid newspapers have mounted an aggressive campaign in favor of May. The Sun’s headline was: “Don’t chuck Britain in the Cor-bin”, with a picture of Corbyn’s head in a dustbin. The Daily Mail featured a photo of May on its front page, with the headline, “Let’s ignite British spirit.”
Last-minute opinion polls pointed to a Conservative victory. Survation predicted the Conservatives would get 41.3 percent and Labour 40.4 percent of the vote. Kantar gave the Conservatives a five-point lead, YouGov and Opinium, seven points, Panelbase eight, Com Res 10, ICM, 12 and BMG, a 13-point lead.
However, the pollsters said voter turnout could affect the results. Younger voters favor the Labour Party and older ones prefer the Conservatives.
Former Conservative Party treasurer Lord Ashcroft, who has conducted private surveys in past elections that proved accurate, said May will end the day with at least a 45-seat majority, an improvement on the 17-seat advantage she holds at present.
A Conservative victory could have major implications for Chinese students, who may find it more difficult to study in the UK. Alex de Ruyter, head of the Centre for Brexit Studies at Birmingham City University, said the Conservatives have an explicit commitment to keeping international students numbers low, and their manifesto talks about reducing net migration down to the tens of thousands.
“That, to me, is an obstacle in growing UK-China trade,” De Ruyter said. “If the Conservative Party and Theresa May are serious about reduc- ing migration to tens of thousands, they’re really going to damage a sector that’s worth millions to the UK economy.”
Other aspects of the British-Chinese relationship are likely to remain unchanged. Christopher Bovis, a professor of international business law at the University of Hull, said: “China and its investment strategy are predominant features of the UK trade policy irrespective of the results of the elections. The ability of the UK to move away from the EU single market as a result of the 2016 referendum is directly relevant to establishing successful trade and commercial relations with countries which could fill the gap of free trade in the EU.”