Study predicts temperature increase across South Asia

WASHINGTON — By the end of this century, summer heat waves could exceed the upper limit of human survivability in areas of South Asia, a new study said on Wednesday.

The worst-affected regions would be the Chota Nagpur Plateau, northeastern India, and Bangladesh, according to the study published by the US journal Science Advances.

“Our findings have significant implications to the ongoing considerations regarding climate change policy,” said the study, which is based on detailed computer simulations using the best available global circulation models.

The research is based on two climate models. One is a “business-as-usual” scenario in which little is done to contain climate change, and the second is aimed at limiting temperature rise to well below 2 C, as pledged by more than 190 nations under the 2015 Paris climate accord.

The study is the first of its kind to look not just at temperatures, but at the forecast of “wet-bulb temperature,” which combines temperature, humidity and the body’s ability to cool down.

Our findings have significant implications ... regarding climate change policy.” Science Advances report of South Asia’s population would be exposed to harmful temperatures, said the report.

The survivability threshold is considered to be 35 C.

“It is hard to imagine conditions that are too hot for people to survive for a more than a few minutes, but that is exactly what is being discussed in this paper,” said Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field, who was not involved in the study. “And of course, the danger threshold for punishing heat and humidity is lower for