‘Slim chance’ of military response

Intervention downplayed after Kurdish referendum

ISTANBUL — As Iraq’s neighbors are cooperating with Baghdad to impose sanctions against the Iraqi Kurds over an independence referendum, Turkish analysts downplayed the possibility of a military intervention.

Latest figures showed at least 93 percent of the Kurdish voters favored independence of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region from Iraq.

The regional balances don’t allow medium-sized countries to take up arms against the Kurdistan Regional Government, said Hasan Koni, a professor of public international law at Istanbul Kultur University.

“It is not probable that Turkey, Iran and Iraq would militarily intervene against the Kurds,” Koni added.

Turkey and Iran, two immediate neighbors which have borders with the Kurdistan region, are seen as medium-sized powers, while Iraq itself has been weakened by years of civil war following the US occupation in 2003.

Celalettine Yavuz, a former staff officer in the Turkish military, also said the chances are slim that Turkey and Iran will intervene militarily in the Kurdistan region.

Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations in Ankara-based Middle East Technical University, echoed Yavuz, saying: “Not only the United States and Israel, but the whole world would oppose such an intervention.”

Countermeasures

Most analysts thought that the US would, despite its opposition to the referendum, block a possible military intervention.

The Iraqi central government is not considered to be in a position to militarily intervene either, as it gets support from the US in its fight against the Islamic State group.

As the Iraqi Kurds went to the polls on Monday, Ankara and Teheran took coordinated steps with Baghdad to exert pressure on the Kurds.

Turkey and Iran, both housing a large Kurdish population, strongly oppose the Iraqi Kurdish referendum on secession, arguing it would lead to further chaos and ethnic clashes in the region.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi vowed to do whatever is necessary to protect the territorial integrity of the country. On Wednesday, he demanded that the Kurdish authorities “cancel” the outcome of Monday’s independence referendum.

Baghdad demanded in an order to the Kurdish government on Sunday that the control of all airports and border gates be handed over to the central government. It also asked all foreign countries to deal with the central government on all issues including oil sale.

Iran closed on Sunday its air space to flights to and from the Iraqi Kurdish region upon Baghdad’s request.

Turkey started military maneuvers along its border with the Kurdish region a week before the referendum, but it was no more than muscle flexing and mainly for show, Bagci said.

Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on Monday that Turkey has been working on political, economic and military measures against the Kurdish region.

But he added that the military maneuvers on the border do not mean that Ankara would get involved in a war.