HK must show mettle as superpower map redrawn
It was not long after the historic 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that the country, which had just announced its fresh orientation, faced the need to engage with the world’s other superpower. Naturally, the agenda for such summit meetings tends to be dictated partly by live events, in this case the growing crisis over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea nuclear issue. But the CPC congress has clearly charted China’s course for the longer term, and thus the United States president was himself compelled to adopt a longer-term perspective.
Of course, the immediate issues of the day occupied a high priority in the discussions. Both sides set out their positions on the Korean nuclear issue; there was no real meeting of minds but there was at least a genuine desire for problemsolving and goodwill, rendering a potentially disastrous misunderstanding less likely. Also, US President Donald Trump’s regional tour, involving multilateral sessions of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum and Association of Southeast Asian Nations, will have reassured China’s AsiaPacific neighbors that the US withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations, on the first day of Trump’s presidency, does not herald US disengagement from the region’s trade structures.
How does this affect Hong Kong? In the first place, it is vital that Hong Kong continues to stay out of any security-related issues involving the Chinese mainland and the region. The US president did not mention Hong Kong except tangentially; the last thing he needs is to be seen to be interfering in Hong Kong-mainland relations.
Nonetheless, the more the US and the mainland can continue in agreement on global free trade issues, the more Hong Kong can benefit. No major concessions by either side were made or expected, but the central government announced improved foreign-market access to its financial-services industry, which will benefit firms partnered with Hong Kong companies. And the relatively benign approach to historical trade disputes adopted by both leaders, in which China acknowledged that bilateral trade is not a zero-sum game and the US carefully avoided blaming the country for the long-established trade deficit, also augured well for Hong Kong’s continuing future as a regional entrepot. Especially as it now looks clear that friction along the southeastern trade routes has been averted due to the central government’s pacific and reasonable approach.
The whole world is watching the state of US-China relations, as so much depends on it globally — and Hong Kong is apparently in the front line of this juxtaposition. As long as the two great powers remain on good terms — and President Xi Jinping’s warm reception of Trump and Trump’s words about Xi suggest both sides are currently committed to good relations — a major shadow over the region’s trade and security will be dispelled. The one real danger in this regard is if the Chinese leadership was to acquire the impression that the US is operating some kind of containment policy against China. There have been rumors that the US is working on an “IndoPacific” strategy — Trump has referred on several occasions to the “Indo-Pacific region” — which might be interpreted as an attempt to build an anti-China alliance including India and Japan. Of course, China will do anything it can to deter the US from adopting such a strategy.
The main thing which people will remember from this visit will be the “optics” — the spectacular nature of the visit and the huge efforts both sides expended to make the other feel comfortable and appreciated. Neither side expected the other to make major concessions, but both sides had important points to make. On the Chinese side, the unwavering commitment to Xi’s policy goals had to be emphasized; and on the US side, Trump had to make it clear that progress was required both on security and trade issues, as he needs to be seen talking tough for the benefit of his electorate at home, without disruption to relations with essential partners like China. Both sides are sincerely wishing to claim a ‘win-win’ result from their dialogue and cooperation.
And there lies the key to cooperation with Trump. He is not a complex character — he tells it as he sees it. And one of his great themes is respect for “winners” rather than “losers”. Following the impeccably staged 19th CPC congress, it is clear to Trump that Xi is one of the world’s current “winners”, and Trump treated him with the appropriate respect.
Hong Kong needs to note this. The territory must continue to play to its strengths, and be seen as a “winner” — a status the special administrative region has deserved throughout its lifetime on the “economic freedom” front. Hong Kong must not let itself look “needy” — it must stand tall and strong, as a winner in a world of winners, not as a supplicant entity needing a prop to lean on. In that way, Hong Kong can continue to be an essential component part of the rising China of the 21st century.