A choice between development and chaos

Conceivably, both the pro-establishment camp and the opposition camp in Hong Kong have gone all-out to contest the Legislative Council by-election on Sunday, with much at stake for both sides.

The by-election which will fill four of the six seats vacated by former legislators-elect, who were disqualified last year after they took the LegCo oath improperly, is essentially a game-changing showdown between the two camps. The results of the poll could change the political landscape in the legislature and thus politics in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region — at least for the next few years.

For the opposition, a sweeping victory would effectively restore its veto power in the legislature, which was lost after the court stripped six lawmakers-elect from this camp of their seats after they took their oaths of office improperly last year. Lawmakers from this camp could always exploit every filibustering stunt to delay any legislative bill they disliked but the veto power they enjoyed in the geographical constituencies was the only weapon they could use to block a bill. The loss of such veto power is a crippling blow.

For the pro-establishment camp, a big victory would strengthen control of the legislature. A legislature under the absolute control of the government-friendly camp would go a long way to facilitate introduction and implementation of government policies.

Members of the opposition are confident they can recapture their lost veto power in LegCo, banking on the idea that they would gain an upper hand in the three geographical constituency seats up for grabs on Sunday. They used to enjoy a comfortable lead over their pro-establishment rivals in most geographical constituencies in past elections, thanks to voters’ belief that the existence of an opposition is beneficial to governance.

But things have changed now; the gap has narrowed in elections held over the past few years. An increasing number of voters have ditched the opposition camp because they have become disillusioned with them.

Instead of becoming the “constructive opposition” voters have aspired for, many if not most lawmakers elected from the camp have become radicalized after they failed to push through their desired version of an electoral reform package to implement universal suffrage in the city, and turned themselves into obstructionists. Their best-known “achievement” in the legislature in recent years has been to cripple it.

By exploiting all kinds of eye-popping filibustering stunts they could think of, they have successfully rendered the legislature dysfunctional in recent years. As a result, hundreds of hours of precious LegCo meeting time have been wasted; numerous policies and initiatives aimed at improving people’s livelihoods, promoting economic growth or addressing social problems have been delayed or derailed. Funding bills for thousands of construction and engineering items, as well as some mega infrastructure projects, have been stalled, affecting the jobs and livelihoods of hundreds of construction workers and technical staff.

Obstructionism in the legislature could be made worse by separatists if they manage to make inroads into the legislative chamber. The returning office banned no-holds-barred localists from contesting Sunday’s by-election but a couple of “subclinical” separatists (who camouflaged their secessionist sentiments) might have successfully exploited some loopholes in the eligibility vetting system and gained permission to stand in the Sunday by-election.

Separatism is a hopeless endeavor. It will only further split Hong Kong society and bring it to a dead end, both politically and economically. It would undermine the central government’s confidence in the SAR’s capability to safeguard national interests and promote national developmental strategies, thus eroding the SAR’s future role and significance in national development, eventually to the detriment of the city’s own well-being. Essentially, the by-election on Sunday is about making a choice between development and chaos for the SAR.