Future of US-Iran relations ‘looks bleak’
HOUSTON — Mistrust between Washington and Teheran tends to reach a higher level under the current US administration, which will further raise the risk of miscalculation and the chances of escalation when an incident occurs, said US experts.
According to a recent study titled Trump Policy in the Middle East: Iran, foreign policy experts Joe Barnes and Robert Barron from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy explored the policy of US President Donald Trump’s administration toward Iran and analyzed the ways in which it differs from that of the Barack Obama administration.
The research fellows said that constructive relationship between the United States and Iran had “a faint prospect under the Obama administration”, and the prospect is “even unlikelier under Trump”.
“The Trump administration will find rolling back Iranian influence a heavy lift and, at times, a dangerous one,” said the authors, adding: “The EU (European Union) and others in the international community will be wary of efforts to further isolate Iran.”
Israel and Saudi Arabia welcome the Trump administration’s stance, “but a perceived carte blanche from Washington might prompt leaders in Saudi Arabia and Israel to act in ways that do not conform to US interests”, they said.
Expanding Iranian influence in the Middle East has worried policymakers in the region and in Washington, said the experts.
The experts noted that since 2011, unrest across the region have created strategic challenges and opportunities for Iran.
They said a unilateral US decision to reimpose sanctions against Iran could create a rift with US allies in Europe. The nomination of Mike Pompeo to replace Rex Tillerson as secretary of state “further clouds” the future, as “Pompeo is widely considered to be a hawk when it comes to Iran and has been a harsh critic of the nuclear deal”.
Looking forward, the authors said “goodwill and deft diplomacy” are required to avoid rocky times ahead for US-Iranian relations, even though both are “in notoriously short supply in the Middle East”.
Meanwhile, EU ambassadors discussed on Wednesday possible new sanctions on Iran, diplomats said, under plans aimed at persuading Trump to preserve the international nuclear deal with Teheran.
The EU could decide to impose the extra measures under discussion in Brussels at a foreign ministers’ meeting next month, four diplomats said.
Trump has given the European signatories a May 12 deadline to “fix the terrible flaws” of the 2015 nuclear deal, which was agreed under his predecessor Obama, or he will refuse to extend US sanctions relief on Iran.
Britain, France and Germany have proposed the extra EU sanctions over Iran’s ballistic missile programs and its role in the war in Syria, according to a confidential document seen by Reuters. The hope is to encourage Trump to issue new waivers preventing those US sanctions lifted under the deal from resuming next month.
Reuters contributed to this story.
The EU and others in the international community will be wary of efforts to further isolate Iran.” Recent study