Strategic orientation of Sino-US relations

Despite repeated consultations and China’s restraint, the US seems hellbent on instigating a full-fledged trade war and expanding it to bilateral investments, intellectual property, strategic industries, the Belt and Road Initiative, the South China Sea issue, the Taiwan question, and the internationalization of the yuan. Why?

An analysis of the orientation of US-China relations from the strategic and historical perspective will make things clearer. As Laotzu said, the future has come before the past is gone. So the changing China-US relationship will be accompanied by various uncertainties and risks.

Will China-US friction lead to a new “Cold War” featuring all-round confrontation? Such a concern is not totally groundless. While striving for the best outcomes, China should prepare to deal with the worst-case scenario while engaging in active communication and in-depth consultation. The “unknown” and “uncertain” have actually provided an opportunity for exploring the two countries’ common grounds, which could help them adjust their respective policies, so as to create a “win-win”, rather than “lose-lose”, situation.

But if the US insists on containing China, the chances of the two sides falling into the “Thucydides’ trap” will increase. The US knows this very well. So why is it pushing bilateral ties toward confrontation? It is doing so mainly because it feels China’s strategic orientation doesn’t conform to its expectations.