Trump treaty withdrawal leads to fears for security
Russia denies violating pact, says US decision would be ‘dangerous blow’
As President Donald Trump announced that he will pull the US out of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia, experts said the complicated relations between the countries may become even more tense, increasing the possibility of armed conflicts.
Trump on Saturday accused Russia of breaching the decades-old pact limiting strategic weapons development.
“Russia has violated the agreement. They have been violating it for many years,” he said after a rally. “And we’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and go out and do weapons and we’re not allowed to.”
The INF treaty, signed by the former Soviet Union and the United States in 1988, bans both countries’ development, deployment and testing of ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles with ranges of between 300 miles (483 km) and 3,400 miles (5,472 km).
Trump didn’t provide details about Russian’s violations, but according to The Associated Press, White House national security officials said in 2017 that Russia had deployed a cruise missile in violation of the treaty. Earlier, the Obama administration also accused Moscow of developing and testing a prohibited cruise missile.
Moscow has denied the allegations and has accused the US of not being in compliance. On Sunday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Washington’s planned withdrawal from the treaty would be a very dangerous step which would draw criticism from the global community, TASS news agency reported.
“This would be a very dangerous step that, I’m sure, not only will not be comprehended by the international community but will provoke serious condemnation,” Ryabkov said, stressing that the treaty is “significant for international security and security in the sphere of nuclear arms, for the maintenance of strategic stability”.
Russia also condemned what it called attempts by the US to gain concessions “through a method of blackmail”, Ryabkov added.
Fan Jishe, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted that Moscow and Washington have repeatedly accused each other of violating the treaty for years.
He said it is not a surprise that Washington has decided to withdraw from the INF as he pointed out that the US administration had maintained a “confrontational approach and coercion mindset” in dealing with international affairs.
Renegotiation possible
Fan said the US administration has repeatedly cut international ties and what it really wants is to modified current rules and make them more favorable to US interests. So the possibility of renegotiation between the US and Russia cannot be ruled out, he said.
Trump’s remarks came as his National Security Adviser John Bolton was heading to Russia on Saturday.
Bolton is expected to hold talks with senior Russian political leaders and officially announce and outline the US withdrawal plan.
Yang Chengjun, a Chinese missile expert, said Washington’s move is highly irresponsible and could fuel the world into a missile arms race.
Yang said once the treaty is invalidated, it will undoubtedly add to regional insecurity.
“Missiles with ranges of between 300 miles and 3,400 miles are designed for use most in regional armed conflict. Once the US quits the treaty, it will enable Russia and the US, which owns the largest armaments in the world, to a dangerous confrontation status.”
Meanwhile, Li Shuyin, a military studies researcher at the PLA Academy of Military Science, said the withdrawal will become a major blow to the global system of strategic stability.
“In the case of the US exit, a powerful blow will be delivered to the whole system of global strategic stability in the world,” Li said, added that the treaty is a milestone document which in a way alleviated the tensions during the Cold War.
“But US disrespect of this treaty and other international rules indicates that Washington has not given up its Cold War mentality,” she said.