Being rational key to unlock final deal

Given the complex nature of the economic and trade differences between China and the United States, no one should underestimate how difficult the challenge is to find compromises that satisfy their respective interests. Despite the optimism expressed by both sides that a deal can be reached, there is still some uncertainty about what that might actually entail.

This has created a situation in which relations between the two countries seem to be in a state of limbo similar to that of Schrödinger’s unfortunate cat as it waits for someone to look in the box.

If the US president had sneaked a peak before the weekend, he didn’t reveal it by tweeting — perhaps, perhaps not, was all he said on Friday when assessing the likelihood of a deal.

However, on Sunday, he presented a far more positive prognosis when he announced a stay of execution on the additional tariffs due to kick in if no agreement was reached by March 1, saying the talks on the weekend had been “very productive”.

This holds the promise that the two sides are finally close to reaching a deal. Especially, as there have been hints that texts on various issues are being drafted.

A comprehensive agreement would clearly be the most desirable way to put an end to the dispute, and that now appears to be on the cards. After the progress that has been made in this round of negotiations, there is growing confidence on both sides that there is little chance of it all ending in tears and bitter acrimony.

That will certainly be true if before discussing the differences that present the greatest difficulties, their talks first mastered the more elementary issue of why such discussions were taking place at all.

Which is not, as Washington claims, China’s misbehavior. But rather the belief in Washington that its investment in a future in which China would be a fully-paid up member of the US-led system has not paid off.

If, instead of feeling aggrieved, Washington has accepted that China will continue to adhere to its own system and the development path it has chosen, that will help ensure the lasting viability of a deal which would clearly be in their own interests and those of the world.

China’s leadership has made it clear on a number of occasions that it is committed to further improving the efficiency, transparency and openness of the Chinese economy. But the US should bear in mind China cannot simply ignore the challenges created by any adjustments.

The talks are now at the most difficult stage, given the current momentum and substantial progress that have been made, if the two sides remain rational about what can and can’t be done, any challenges ahead can be overcome and the opportunities of greater trust and cooperation seized.