After presidential polls, Washington could get tougher with Teheran

Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami said on Thursday that a recent US plan to establish a maritime coalition force for escorting ships would not bring security to the Persian Gulf. And on Aug 4, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it had seized another foreign oil tanker, the third in the past month, in the Gulf for “smuggling oil” to Arabian countries.

Teheran has detained foreign tankers to establish itself as the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz, foiling Washington’s plan to build a naval alliance to provide protection to ships passing through the Gulf. Iran’s counteractions against the US’ “maximum pressure”, which include seizing oil vessels, shooting down a US drone and threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, are all aimed at sounding out the US bottom line.

Iran will use every possible opportunity before the US presidential campaign to gain the upper hand against the United States and Europe, because it tends to believe that the incumbent US administration will not take any military action against it.

Although Iran is no match for the US in military power, in the Middle East it is more or less equal to its main rivals such as Israel and Saudi Arabia in military might.

Besides, it controls the Strait of Hormuz through which one-fifth of the global oil trade is conducted and thus has the ability to send economic shockwaves across the world, apart from sitting on a large stock of oil. This has emboldened it to break the uranium enrichment limit.

Any incidents in the Gulf could push up oil prices given the tension between Iran and the US and the United Kingdom. Yet the most direct influence on oil prices comes from the US.

First, US oil production has been rising for a long time, preventing oil-producing countries from raising oil prices despite the decline in prices since May. Prices could rebound in the future, though.

Second, the US leader will keep putting pressure on Iran to seek the support of the Jewish community to ensure his re-election next year, although he may refrain from taking any hasty military action against Iran. The US’ “maximum pressure” strategy not only includes withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and demanding Iran to stop alleged terrorist activities, but also comprises a unilateral approach to Middle East affairs in exchange for the cooperation of big oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia to maintain the oil supply.

Third, the US leader doesn’t seem worried about the impact of rising oil prices on the US economy or voters in the presidential election as it is in the middle of trade negotiations with major economies including China, which are designed to help him win more votes and suppress the demand for oil because of the slowing growth of these economies. And if major countries’ growth slows, the demand for oil would not increase preempting any rise in prices.

But if the US leader is re-elected, the US’ stance on Iran could toughen and the possibility of military action aimed at overthrowing the Iranian government cannot be ruled out.

The US attempt to establish a NATO-like organization in the Middle East, its escorting of oil tankers across the Strait of Hormuz and its attitude toward Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reveal its ultimate goal is “regime change”, so as to secure its allies’ security interests, control the flow of oil, as well as contain the rising influence of China and Russia in the region.

Besides, the oil market is likely to see an upswing if the US leader is re-elected, as a result of the release of the pre-election accumulated pressure in the Gulf and a possible China-US trade deal. But even if oil prices rise after the US presidential election, they are not likely to surpass $100 per barrel, as it did in 2014.

The author is an associate research fellow at the Institute of International Relations, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. The views don’t necessarily represent those of China Daily.