Trump keen to tap Modi’s popularity
US President Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive in India on Monday for a two-day visit to the country. During his trip, Trump expects to address a gathering in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat.
Trump’s visit has to be seen in the context of political compulsions amid his reelection bid for the US presidency. According to analysts, he hopes to latch on to Modi’s popularity and win over a substantial share of Indian-American voters in the 2020 presidential polls.
Indian-American voters will total about 1.4 million by November, and the number is enough to signify the coming of age of the Indian diaspora in the United States.
“The Indian diaspora in the US have become an integral part of the political and economic fabric of the US,” said Ruby Dhalla, the first Indian and Sikh woman elected to the Canadian parliament.
By numbers alone, Indian-American voters are not an ethnic population that could decide electoral outcomes, said Monish Tourangbam, senior assistant professor at Manipal Academy of Higher Education.
But he said they make up one of the most successful ethnic groups in the US, accounting for one of the highest median incomes in the country. More recently, the community has emerged as a substantial source of funding for both political parties. Gujaratis constitute 20 percent of Indian Americans.
“Make no mistake, the Howdy Modi event in Texas (in September last year) and the (upcoming) Namaste Trump rally in Gujarat are as much about the presidential elections in the US as they are about the India-US bilateral relationship,” he said.
Trump heaped praise on the Indian community when he addressed a public event with Modi in Houston in September. His speech acknowledged the importance of the IndianAmerican community.
‘Smaller ones matter too’
The size of the Indian-American community alone does not explain the significance of the effusive praise from Trump. It also has to do with the voting pattern in the last US presidential election as well as the likely turnout of voters in the 2020 polls.
Many analysts believe four US states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida — are most likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election in 2020.
“The margins of Trump’s victory (in 2016) in these states were very small.
Margins such as 10,000 or 11,000 votes force you to reach out to every demographic group. Even the smaller ones matter too,” said journalist Varghese K. George, and author of the book Open Embrace: India-US ties in the age of Modi and Trump.
He said Indian Americans are increasingly happy about Trump, although Trump singled out India on trade issues and showed hostility for immigrant workers in general.
Moreover, Pawan Dhingra, professor of US studies at Amherst College, said: “There is a great affection for Modi among many — not all — Indian Americans, especially Hindus, but that does not translate into a similar affection for Trump”.
Dhingra argued that Trump has proven unsympathetic to immigrants from all across the world, including those on H-1B visas. But a positive message on Trump from Modi could still make a difference.
Republicans have been trying for years to make inroads with IndianAmerican voters, who register and vote at high rates. Thus, as US presidential elections warm up, it is no wonder that Indian-American voters have become an important part of the diplomatic agenda between the two countries.