Premier League’s transfer-market bubble set to burst

The financial squeeze put on English Premier League clubs by the coronavirus crisis could be felt across the continent in the coming months as the well to fund massive transfer fees runs dry.

For each of the past four summers, EPL clubs have flexed their financial muscle to splurge over 1 billion pounds ($1.3 billion) on player transfers.

That has helped spread the wealth of television contracts worth billions across Europe and crucially down the divisions to cash-strapped clubs in England.

Now even the world’s richest league is facing economic meltdown.

Premier League matches have been suspended indefinitely with no return expected before midJune at the earliest.

Broadcasters could be due a rebate worth a reported 762 million pounds if the season is not completed and, even if the action does recommence, they are likely to be behind closed doors, quashing income from gate receipts.

Moreover, a number of major sponsors such as airlines and gambling companies have been just as badly hit by the COVID-19 shutdown, which is expected to lead to a curb on commercial revenue.

Rather than the usual arms race for talent, Premier League clubs are fretting about just meeting their wage bills for the next few months.

“Many clubs could be threatened by insolvency and transfer plans came to a standstill for most clubs because of the many uncertainties,” said Matthias Seidel, founder of player evaluation site Transfermarkt.com.

According to Transfermarkt, 1.8 billion euros ($2 billion) has already been wiped off the value of Premier League squads.

“There’s no doubt the actual value of players right now has gone down in all squads,” said Brighton & Hove Albion owner Tony Bloom.

“How much less, I have no idea. It depends on how the next few months play out.”

‘Vultures’

Such uncertainty has led for calls to do away with transfers entirely to avoid the unseemly sight of clubs, who have asked staff to take pay cuts and in some cases relied on government money, spending money on new players.

“If you’re trying to get 30 percent pay cuts from existing players, you may have to put a transfer embargo in place,” former Manchester United captain Gary Neville told Sky Sports.

However, embargoes may only accelerate fears that clubs lower down the pyramid will not survive the crisis.

Proceeds from transfer sales are commonly used in the lower leagues to cover running costs and will be needed even more without the regular income of gate receipts to rely on.

“I think there will be significant transfer fee deflation,” soccer finance expert Kieran Maguire told AFP.

“There will be a significant number of clubs that when some form of transfer market returns, they will be close to going out of business and therefore will accept fire-sale prices.