Solidarity, collaboration vital to lifting Hong Kong out of economic ‘ice age’

Chow Pak-chin discusses some important things we can do to help employment prospects of youth in tough times

With the political turmoil arising from the anti-extradition bill movement having dragged on for an astounding sixmonth period, few would disagree that rebuilding trust across community sectors is a critical issue in Hong Kong. Now that the extradition law amendment bill has been withdrawn and the District Council elections are over, it is high time that people of Hong Kong stand together to restore the city.

A serious and worsening downturn in the global economy, which was triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, is affecting everyone everywhere in the world. Hong Kong is no exception.

Hong Kong is one of the world’s most open economies. It is also a small economy with minimum government participation and intervention. This means we are very vulnerable to external factors, especially those from the United States and Europe, the city’s most significant foreign partners.

The latest figures show that US unemployment rate has surged to a historic high of 14.7 percent. The last time unemployment was this high was during the Great Depression, nearly a century ago.

And by other calculations, it is said to stand at 23.6 percent.

The US government estimates that 20.5 million jobs disappeared in April in the worst monthly loss ever as a result of coast-to-coast shutdowns of factories, stores, and almost all businesses amid COVID-19 lockdowns across various states.

The grim picture is being replicated the world over.

In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England has forecast the country’s economy is heading for its worst crash in more than 300 years due to the prolonged lockdown.

The UK central bank has said the British economy could shrink by 14 percent this year, which is the biggest annual contraction since 1706, when it hit 15 percent.

In the US, corporations have collapsed one after another with major fashion retailer J. Crew Group falling under the ax of COVID-19. The group became the first major American retailer to file for bankruptcy protection since the coronavirus pandemic has forced a string of store closures across the nation. J. Crew certainly won’t be the last business giant to fall.

Meanwhile, department store chain J. C. Penney — one of the oldest department store chains in the US — may file for bankruptcy soon, with plans to shut a quarter of its 850 stores.

In Hong Kong, like anywhere else, when we measure economic performance, we look at the GDP and unemployment numbers.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-Po said the city’s economy has seen its worst decline on record, sliding 8.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter as a result of disrupted economic activities.

The local jobless rate increased to 4.2 percent between January and March, up from 3.7 percent for the period between December 2019 and February — the highest in over nine years.

However, the unemployment figures could be an understatement.

In fact, they can even be described as being distorted. This is because many companies, which include big corporations like airlines, have put the majority of their staffs on unpaid leave. Based on that, staff who are temporarily “unemployed” because they are on leave without pay have not been counted in the 4.2 percent figure.

Bearing all these factors in mind, we need to take the unemployment rates with a pinch of salt.

A more effective way to gauge the state of our declining economy is by taking a simple trip to Mong Kok district or Canton Road in Tsim Sha Tsui. It’s not difficult to see rows of vacant shops in Mong Kok, while Canton Road, one of the city’s prime luxury retail strips, is now eerily empty but for a small handful of shoppers.

Another telltale sign is the dwindling number of taxis as people are opting to stay home.

In my previous columns, I talked about the economic “ice age” that Hong Kong was experiencing as a result of not only the pandemic but also the anti-government movement that began in June.

Thankfully, the pandemic seems to be waning as Hong Kong had not recorded any new locally transmitted cases in more than three weeks before Wednesday.

Sadly, just as us people are about to breathe a sigh of relief, protesters have re-emerged under various pretenses across the city.

Hundreds gathered in shopping malls all over the city on Sunday, with many more hoping to create chaos through their unlawful actions pressing for the same old demands.

Their radical thinking and violent behavior can be summed up by the term or “burn together”. Ultimately, their goal is to bring Hong Kong down with them.

In the meantime, the majority of Hongkongers would agree that the most urgent task now is to rescue the economy, which is the only way to save the careers of our youngsters.

Every year after taking the Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education Examination, only a tiny percentage of high schoolers join the workforce. Most remain in the education system — either in universities, tertiary colleges or vocational institutes.

The tertiary education system produces hundreds of thousands of graduates every year. We do not notice the numbers when there is, and indeed for decades we have had, full employment. This year, Hong Kong will be hard-pressed to provide even half of them with jobs. It is fast becoming a huge personal, family and social issue. In regard to society, idle minds and idle hands could aggravate the problems we have already had with the protests.

The harsh reality is this: Experience elsewhere has shown that any prospective employer will hesitate to hire a university graduate with large gaps in their resume. In relation to the resurgence of graduates joining the protests, a prospective candidate for a job who has taken a long leave of absence to protest against the government may appear even less attractive.

This much is clear, we need to find ways to give young people who are completing their studies meaningful occupations through proper job placements.

And that is precisely one of the many tasks the newly formed Hong Kong Coalition, of which I am a co-founder, aims to achieve.

First, we need to find out what our young people want to do with their lives during this worst recession, and what kind of stopgap measures they are prepared to take.

Of course, there will be those who don’t want to work on the Chinese mainland. But for those who do, some may desire to venture further afield and travel to faraway places like the Inner Mongolia or Ningxia Hui autonomous regions in the hope of finding career opportunities.

We need to consider their needs and match them with employers who can lend a helping hand, or even expedite their careers — as well as their personal development.

Even if there are no long-term jobs suitable for them in the beginning, we still need to give them work experience by offering them internships or even voluntary social service positions. It’s all about keeping them actively engaged so the work-experience column in their CVs will not be blank.

Along with the fact that our open economy is totally vulnerable to external factors, another problem is the question of whether mainland tourists will ever return to Hong Kong.

All these fundamental factors dictate our fate as to whether we will survive and eventually emerge from the economic “ice age”.

The Hong Kong Coalition’s goal is to uphold the “one country, two systems” principle so we can jointly build a stable and prosperous Hong Kong, revive the city’s economy, restore law and order, and resolve the political crisis from anti-government protests.

It is not a government organization, nor is it a think tank that comments on government policies; and it will not make any policy proposals to the government.

Simply put, the coalition aims to work with the government or assist in the implementation of policies. It is calling on society at large to help our young people and in so doing, help everyone in Hong Kong.