Early Chinese response ensured disease control
China contained the novel coronavirus effectively because it introduced control measures early and adjusted them in response to changes in transmission, according to a report from a leading British university.
The latest Imperial College London report on the virus and the COVID-19 disease describes how the early implementation of control measures and timely adjustment are important in containing transmission of the virus.
Imperial’s researchers said measures such as school closures, travel restrictions, and contact tracing, which were introduced in provinces at a stage when few cases of infection were being reported, were essential to limiting and averting transmission.
The team also noted that the focus of control strategies shifted following the first wave of locally driven cases, encompassing compulsory testing and quarantine for all incoming travelers, and close monitoring of asymptomatic infections. All such measures helped China maintain a relatively small number of cases over time.
To understand the epidemic trends of COVID-19 in China, the researchers carried out data collation and descriptive analysis from mid-January to the end of March in 31 Chinese provinces and municipalities, with a focus on the six most affected provinces.
In comparison to Hubei province, the five other most-affected provinces — Guangdong, Henan, Zhejiang, Hunan and Anhui — reported a lower case-to-fatality ratio and smaller proportion of severe hospitalized cases over time.
In Hubei, there were fewer contacts traced per case, which might be explained by reduced contact activity during the lockdown period.
From March, the first waves driven by local transmission declined, while the burden of imported cases increased. The focus of control measures, therefore, shifted toward the testing and quarantine of inbound travelers in order to continue the suppression of transmission.
Fu Han, co-author of the report, said: “The analysis shows consistency with the interpretation of the importance of early implementation and proper adjustment of control strategies over the changing epidemic.”
Detailed data
Xi Xiaoyue, another co-author, said that by collecting both epidemic data and intervention strategies from the provincial health commission in the Chinese mainland, “our study compares differences in epidemics and level of controls between provinces and provides detailed data to potentially assess the effectiveness of control policies, which might support the response to the ongoing global pandemic”.
Since the emergence of the coronavirus in December, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the developing pandemic.
In June, the leaders of the university and Tsinghua University called for global collaboration in tackling the pandemic and other global challenges.
A joint symposium organized by the two universities brought together academics from the fields of economics, vaccine development, and diagnostic tools to share their thoughts on the impact of the pandemic and ways in which their research can help.