Global economy seen as shrinking 4.4 percent in 2020
BERLIN — Global economic output is estimated to decline by 4.4 percent in 2020, according to a survey by European researchers that comes on the heels of a more downbeat view by economists for recovery in the United States.
The European researchers, from the German ifo Institute and the EconPol Europe research network, canvassed the views of 950 economic experts from 110 countries and regions. The report was published on Wednesday.
In the US, economists’ less bullish views on the country’s emergence from the coronavirusinduced recession owe, in part, to the concerns about rising case numbers of the virus, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics, or NABE. The findings, in its October Outlook Survey, were released on Monday.
For the Europe-based study, more than a third of the surveyed experts expected global economic output to return to precrisis levels in 2022. But almost 20 percent forecast that the global economy would only fully recover in 2023, according to the ifo Institute.
China was the only major economy for which the experts still forecast positive growth in 2020, with its gross domestic product seen increasing 2.3 percent. The United States would see its GDP fall by 6.5 percent, while the European Union’s was even expected to shrink by 8.4 percent.
Liquidity support for small and
medium-sized enterprises was regarded as the “most effective economic policy measure” by experts from the EU, the United States and other advanced economies such as Japan and Canada, the survey found.
Economic experts in “emerging and developing countries” in Asia, Latin America and Africa preferred improvements in the healthcare system, according to the ifo Institute.
In the NABE’s report, 52 economists lowered their forecast for US economic growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2020 as well as for 2021.
The median forecast for inflationadjusted gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter of 2020 was lowered to an annual rate of 4.9 percent from 6.8 percent in the prior survey in June.
The median real US GDP growth estimate for 2021 is 3.6 percent, compared with an expected increase of 4.8 percent in the June survey.
In a report by the International Monetary Fund, Brazil’s economy is projected to shrink 5.8 percent in 2020. But the IMF warned that the country faced “exceptionally high” risks.
“The economy is projected to shrink by 5.8 percent in 2020, followed by a partial recovery to 2.8 percent in 2021,” the IMF said in its annual report on Latin America’s largest economy, released on Monday.