Australia beats second wave with road map
Supportive communities and an effective polic y road map are behind the initial success of Australia in beating the second wa ve of COVID19, analysts said.
Just over four months ago, the premier of Vic toria state, Daniel Andrews, was facing a life or death dilemma: Either close the country’s secondlargest economy or let COVID19 run rampant throughout the state, killing thousands.
While knowing it would not go down well with Vic torians and would damage the econom y, he chose the first option, as the alternative was not even worth contemplating.
Victoria was not alone. E very state in the countr y has lock ed down and beaten COVID 19. Australia has seen no cases of locally transmitted coronavirus for nearly a week. Some repor ted cases involve those who ha ve re turned from overseas and are in isolation.
“No other place in the world has tamed a second wa ve this large. Few have even come close,” Stephen Duckett and T om Crowle y of the Grattan I nstitute, a public polic y think tank, wrote in The Conversation on Oct 26. “Victoria’s lockdown has been hard, but it now occupies a rare and envious position.”
Hassan Vally, associate professor in public health at L a Trobe U niversity in Melbourne, said the k ey to the lockdown ’s success was the support of the Victorian people.
Vally said the crucial lesson that was learned from the lockdown was how dif ficult it is to bring transmission under control once it has started to escalate. “Make sure you don’t get a resurgence of cases, and if you see an y signs of this, then act quickly,” he said.
Victoria began its lockdown in July when daily cases topped 700. Andrews has been hea vily criticized for the wa y he has handled the lockdowns, which started with the state capital Melbourne.
Andrews was told by scientists and health e xperts that he would need to achieve a 14day reporting average of fe wer than five cases per da y before e ven considering lifting some parts of the lockdown.
By Oct 26, the state had reached that targe t and Andre ws began lifting restric tions — cafes, bars, restaurants and shops reopened and Melbourne came back to life.
Professor Adrian Esterman, head of biostatistics and epidemiology at the U niversity of South Australia, said Andre ws and his chief health officer, Professor Brett Sutton, have worked closely together, with the premier deferring to advice from his public health team.
“They have had at their disposal the results of ver y sophisticated simulation modeling .T hat allowed them to de velop a road map of what to lockdown, and when and what restrictions to lift,” Esterman said.
‘Vast majority’
He said the lockdown has had the support of the “vast majorit y” of Vic torians, despite the mental and financial hardship it has caused and queries by some public health researchers about whether the measures were too arbitrary.
Asked about the secre t to Australia’s success, Esterman said that being an island helps, as it gives the government be tter control over its borders.
Infectious diseases specialist Sanjaya Senana yake, associate professor at the Australian National U niversity’s medical school, agrees that a factor in Victoria’s success in fighting the virus was its road map.
“The road map was e videncebased, using mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of their strategies on numbers. And the people of Vic toria appeared to comply,” Senanayake said.