Turkey-EU ties face uncertainty as Merkel leaves scene
ANKARA — The departure of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel from the European political scene may cast a shadow over the difficult relationship between Turkey and the European Union, experts say.
Merkel and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks in Istanbul on Saturday. In a “cordial atmosphere” according to local media, the two leaders discussed ties between Turkey and Germany, Turkey’s desire to be a member of the EU, irregular migration and a series of regional issues.
Talks on Turkey’s membership of the EU are blocked as a result of tensions with Greece and Cyprus, and it is no secret that the long-serving chancellor has opposed Turkey’s accession.
However, Merkel used conciliatory language toward Ankara despite divergent interests on many issues.
Merkel is set to leave power once a new government is in place in Berlin following general elections three weeks ago, and this could mean a new approach to Turkey, analysts say.
“We need to be realistic,” said the former Turkish ambassador Uluc Ozulker. “Merkel’s absence will be a significant loss for Turkey,” Ozulker told the broadcaster NTV. “Her wellbalanced approach toward Turkey was instrumental in reducing tensions between the EU and Turkey, and also in bilateral ties. Without the stability that Merkel incarnated, bilateral relations and Turkey’s ties with the EU are poised to face snags and uncertainty.”
In 2016 Merkel clinched a deal between the EU and Turkey that resulted in fewer migrants crossing the Aegean Sea toward Europe. As part of the deal, Turkey received financial support.
Transit point
Turkey, a key transit point for asylum seekers on their way to Europe, hosts more than 4 million refugees, including more than 3.6 million Syrians, within its borders.
According to a source close to the Turkish government, the country needs the EU, its biggest trading partner, while Germany and the EU need Turkey to pursue a “balanced and mutually satisfactory migration policy”.
Afghanistan is another issue on which the parties need each other following the Taliban takeover. The Taliban has engaged in diplomatic dialogue with both Berlin and Ankara.
Tulin Daloglu, a foreign policy analyst, said current disagreements inside the EU may also have an impact on the future of Turkey-EU relations once Merkel leaves office.
“Europe is entering an area of uncertainties,” she said, adding that “the United States has shifted its security pact from Europe to East Asia”.
Given the uncertainties facing the bloc, Daloglu said, Turkey may also
have additional troubles concerning its long-held strategy to be a member of the union.