Chi­nese and US Economies in Com­par­i­son and In­ter­ac­tion: Now and Fu­ture as China Econ­o­mist Sur­veys *

China Economist - - Articles - Li Gang 1 and Li Oumei 2 1 In­sti­tute of In­dus­trial Eco­nom­ics, CASS 2 School of Eco­nom­ics, Minzu Univer­sity of China • Email: lig­ang@chi­nae­conomist.com

Ab­stract:

China Econ­o­mist has con­tin­u­ously car­ried out sur­veys among econ­o­mists and this round of sur­vey fo­cuses on com­par­i­son and in­ter­ac­tions be­tween Chi­nas and the United States' economies. The re­sult of the sur­vey shows that econ­o­mists are gen­er­ally op­ti­mistic about the out­look of both coun­tries' economies. Re­spon­dents be­lieved that great dif­fer­ences ex­ist in the com­po­nents ofin­dus­trial com­pet­i­tive­ness of China and the US: while the US leads in terms of tal­ent, cre­ativ­ity, so­cial sys­tem, in­dus­trial sys­tem in­tegrity and fi­nanc­ing, cost is the big­gest bar­rier to im­prove­ment in US com­pet­i­tive­ness. In com­par­i­son, China leads in in­fra­struc­ture, cost com­pet­i­tive­ness and govern­ment driv­ing force but in­ad­e­quate tech­nol­ogy is the big­gest bar­rier to im­prove­ment in Chi­nas com­pet­i­tive­ness. Re­spon­dents be­lieved that in the com­ing 20 years, Chi­nas eco­nomic growth will be 5.2% and US growth will be 2.4%. Around 2034, Chi­nas eco­nomic ag­gre­gate will equal the US level but it will take over 60 years for China to catch up with the US in terms of­per capita GDP. Chi­nas man­u­fac­tur­ing tech­nol­ogy will equal the US level around 2045. More than 62% of econ­o­mists be­lieved that the Trump administration will ef­fec­tively re-shore man­u­fac­tur­ing and the av­er­age score they give to Trumps "first 100 days" in of­fice is 76 points. More than 61% ofe­conomists con­sid­ered it un­likely that a se­ri­ous trade war will break out be­tween China and the US. They gen­er­ally be­lieved that China and the US co­op­er­ate and com­pete with each other and that China-US trade en­joys great po­ten­tial to grow. Ac­cord­ing to the sur­vey, re­spon­dents are more cori­fi­dent about Chi­nas debt sus­tain­abil­ity in com­par­i­son with the US. Key­words: China- US in­ter­ac­tion, China- US trade, China- US co­op­er­a­tion, com­pet­i­tive­ness, Trump administration JEL clas­si­fi­ca­tion: F01; 010; 057

DOl: 10.19602/j .chi­nae­conomist.20 17.04.06 re­search in­sti­tutes ( 14%) and en­ter­prises and govern­ment agen­cies (16.8%). Ac­cord­ing to the 127 valid ques­tion­naires in which re­spon­dents in­di­cated their re­gions, econ­o­mists par­tic­i­pat­ing in this sur­vey are from China's east­ern re­gion (70.1% ), cen­tral re­gion (18.1% ), western re­gion

To learn about how econ­o­mists per­ceive the in­dus­trial com­pet­i­tive­ness of China and the US, we con­ducted a sur­vey by dis­tribut­ing ques­tion­naires to the e-mail ad­dresses on China

Econ­o­mist's con­tact list and China Econ­o­mist

WeChat pub­lic ac­count from May 9 to May 18, 2017.

In this sur­vey, we col­lected 131 valid ques­tion­naires from uni­ver­si­ties ( 69.2%),

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