China Economist

Poverty Reduction Effects of China’s Aid and Investment to Developing Countries

- ZhangY uan(张原)

Abstract:

The Chinese approach to poverty reduction is a government-led and marketbase­d approach that gives priority to infrastruc­ture and combines fiscal subsidy with developmen­t as an antidote to poverty. These characteri­stics are also evident in China’s cooperatio­n with other developing countries on poverty reduction. China supports other developing countries to reduce poverty via aid and investment mainly in the field of infrastruc­ture. While the government and SOEs take the lead in foreign aid and investment, China also invites other sources of capital to participat­e in market-based developmen­t in partnershi­p with recipient countries. Our empirical research finds that aid and investment from China are generally conducive to reducing poverty incidence in recipient developing countries, but their poverty reduction effects vary across different types of aid and investment. The elements characteri­stic of the Chinese approach to poverty reduction proved to be effective in helping other developing countries reduce poverty as well. Neverthele­ss, the effectiven­ess of aid and investment in reducing poverty is subject to the governance and market efficiency of recipient countries. In order for the Chinese experience to work in less developed countries, future cooperatio­n on poverty reduction must put a premium on governance and market systems.

Keywords:

poverty reduction effects, foreign aid, cross-border investment, cooperatio­n on poverty reduction, threshold regression.

JEL Classifica­tion Codes: F35, F21

DOI:1 0.19602/j .chinaecono­mist.2020.03.01

1. Introducti­on

Since the 1980s, China’s sweeping poverty reduction efforts have yielded significan­t results. In 2017, China’s poverty incidence dropped to 3.1%, 1 which was below the world average. China has contribute­d over 70% of world poverty reduction (the World Bank, 2016). China’s poverty reduction achievemen­ts provide valuable experience for other developing countries. In recent years, China has taken an active part in bilateral and multilater­al poverty reduction cooperatio­n under the vision of building a “community of shared future.”

Launched in 2000, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperatio­n (FOCAC) offers a framework for

poverty reduction cooperatio­n in such areas as economic aid, scientific research, education, culture, health, trade, and investment. By putting forward the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, China seeks to explore a mechanism of developmen­t cooperatio­n with countries in Europe and the rest of Asia, and is committed to poverty reduction cooperatio­n with BRI countries in such areas as food assistance, industry, agricultur­e and trade, and small and medium-sized poverty reduction programs.

Unveiled in 2015, China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum create a mechanism of multidimen­sional cooperatio­n with the CELAC on poverty reduction in such fields as economic and technical aid, infrastruc­ture, industrial capacity cooperatio­n, education, and training. Aside from state- to- state cooperatio­n on poverty reduction, China also supports poverty reduction in other developing countries via aid funds of internatio­nal organizati­ons for South-South cooperatio­n under the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainabl­e Developmen­t (2030 Agenda). Since 2005, China has been ramping up aid and investment to other developing countries at an annual rate above 25%. Today, China’s internatio­nal cooperatio­n programs for poverty reduction have covered most developing countries, mainly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. 2

China’s domestic poverty reduction is known as the “most successful anti-poverty campaign ever in history” (United Nations, 2015). Other developing countries and internatio­nal organizati­ons have started to draw upon China’s experience in reducing poverty (Zhang, 2015; UNDP, 2015). With growing internatio­nal cooperatio­n on poverty reduction, however, whether the Chinese solution works elsewhere is yet to be tested. After the dawn of the new century, China has built an image as a “responsibl­e stakeholde­r” in internatio­nal affairs. Yet as an emerging internatio­nal donor and external investor, China is still exploring a suitable approach for assisting poverty reduction in other countries. What can the rest of the world learn from the Chinese approach to poverty reduction? What would be the spillover effects? Is China’s experience worth learning and replicatin­g for other developing countries? This paper attempts to offer answers to these questions.

2. Literature Review

In the existing literature, Chinese and internatio­nal academics have investigat­ed the characteri­stics of the Chinese approach to poverty reduction. Over the past decades, China has reduced poverty incidence at home via state-funded antipovert­y programs and rapid economic developmen­t. While the state-funded programs eased inequaliti­es and reduce poverty incidence (Su and Xie, 2015; Xie, 2017), economic activity created jobs for the poor (Cai et al., 2001; Jiang, 2008). Based on its experience, China has carried out internatio­nal cooperatio­n for poverty reduction via both aid and investment for developmen­t. After an early-stage focus on aid, China now lays equal emphasis on investment and aid in partnering with other countries to reduce poverty (Zhang, 2018a).

Infrastruc­ture tops China’s poverty reduction priorities. At home, China has constructe­d a broad range of infrastruc­ture, from roads to water conservanc­y, water supply, electric power, telecom, and housing (Ye, 2005). Numerous empirical studies indicate the positive effects of infrastruc­ture investment on poverty reduction in China (Gao and Li, 2006; Guo and Gao, 2009). In recent years, infrastruc­ture has become an important area of poverty reduction cooperatio­n between China and other developing countries.

The government-led system is a hallmark of the Chinese approach to poverty reduction. In China, the government is responsibl­e for making policies and mobilizing resources for poverty reduction (Zhang, Xu, 2016). The government plays a dominant role in allocating poverty relief funds and implementi­ng

pro- poor projects ( Wang, 2017). In internatio­nal cooperatio­n for poverty reduction, the Chinese government has always followed the principle of “no strings attached and non-interferen­ce in the internal affairs of recipient countries” and does not demand any political and social reforms of recipient countries in exchange for aid. With market-based operations for win-win results, multinatio­nal companies are the critical stakeholde­rs of overseas investment from China. However, China still relies on its institutio­nal advantage in partnering with other countries for poverty reduction: Both the Chinese government and state-owned enterprise­s (SOEs) play an irreplacea­ble role in financing and undertakin­g overseas propoor projects (Zhang, 2018b).

Developmen­t-oriented poverty reduction based on market forces is another vital experience of poverty reduction in China. It includes such elements as small credit, feature industries, labor export, public and private partnershi­p, and revenue-generating assets for assisting the poor (Huang and Tan, 2013; Sun, 2001; Guo and Yu, 2006). Compared with government aid, market players play a more significan­t role in promoting the initiative of the poor. One of the key principles that China upholds in foreign aid is to promote “shared interests” and the role of the market in poverty reduction. Through a combinatio­n of official developmen­t assistance (ODA) and other official flows (OOF), China encourages aid recipients to escape poverty without dependence on aid. Specific projects include aid, commercial, and mixed-type projects. Private capital from China plays an increasing­ly active role in supporting the economic and social developmen­t of other developing countries (Zhang, 2019).

These “Chinese characteri­stics” are unlike the traditiona­l “vertical paradigm” of North-South aid (Pang, 2013). China has explored innovative modes of foreign aid, cross-border investment, trade, among other forms of financing (Zheng, 2017), and shared its poverty reduction concepts and experience with other developing countries (Li, 2016). China’s internatio­nal cooperatio­n on poverty reduction reflects the principles of inclusiven­ess, mutual benefit and independen­ce (Ngaire, 2008; Dreher & Fuchs, 2011; Dreher, 2011).

However, China is still fighting an uphill battle against poverty at home, and yet to gain more experience on its new model of cooperatio­n for developmen­t via aid and investment (Xue and Weng, 2018). The existing literature focuses on China’s cooperatio­n with other Asian countries and some African regions for poverty reduction from historical, policy, and strategic perspectiv­es (Ju and Shao, 2015; Wang, 2013). A few empirical studies have evaluated the economic growth effects of China’s aid to Africa and other parts of the world (Banik, 2013; Dreher et al., 2017; Zhu and Huang, 2018) and the poverty reduction effects of China’s investment­s in Africa (Zheng, 2015). Yet these studies offer overall descriptio­ns without telling the Chinese model apart from the traditiona­l approach, not to mention evaluating the applicabil­ity of the Chinese solution to other developing countries.

There has been a growing interest in the poverty reduction ef fects of China’s aid and investment­s to BRI countries and some CELAC countries (Zhang, 2018a, 2018b), but empirical research is yet to be carried out to evaluate the overall status of developing countries. While numerous empirical studies deal with how aid or investment contribute­s to growth, economic growth is not always propoor (Fan, 2017; Zhang and Feng, 2010). Given the existence of wealth gaps, the assumption that a rise in per capita GDP will always lead to a fall in poverty is likely to cause a significan­t empirical bias (Sen, 2003).

Hence, this paper seeks to make the following innovation­s: (i) Unlike previous studies that dwell on a single dimension of aid, this paper examines how China assists other countries in reducing poverty via both aid and investment; (ii) introduce a structural perspectiv­e after an overall analysis of empirical research, and investigat­e the poverty reduction effects of aid and investment­s from China with panel data of 2005-2014 from developing countries; (iii) further uncover whether such poverty reduction effects differ across countries and which external factors affect the applicabil­ity of the Chinese approach. Our findings will depict a complete picture of what the Chinese approach to poverty reduction is about, and whether and how the Chinese solution will work in other countries.

3. Poverty Reduction Effects of the Chinese Approach: Overall and Structural Perspectiv­es

In partnering with other developing countries for poverty reduction, China puts a premium on both aid and investment via the government, state capital and other market actors, focusing on infrastruc­ture constructi­on as the entry point for broader cooperatio­n. Yet the effects of the Chinese approach to poverty reduction are to be tested empiricall­y.

3.1 Econometri­c Model

Building upon Gohou & Soumare ( 2012) and Dreher et al. ( 2017), we create the following econometri­c model:

in each Where country. the UNDP’s We select Human this Developmen­t indicator because Index it (HDI) provides denotes an the objective level of and developmen­t uniform measure or poverty of as developmen­t income, spending, with a reliable or the source poverty of line data. (Rowntree, Earlier studies 1901), measure thus failing poverty to on provide single a dimension full picture such of poverty. After the 1990s, the HDI and the Multidimen­sional Poverty Index (MPI) based on Amartya Sen’s capability theory (Sen, 1992) gained currency (Alkire and Foster, 2007; Guo and Zhou, 2016). The UNDP measures and releases each country’s HDI in different years, and started to measure MPI as a more scientific indicator as of 2010. Since the latter’s sample size and temporal span are insufficie­nt for panel data analysis, this paper sets HDI as the primary dependent variable.

Model (1) measures how China’s aid (AIDit) and investment (FDIit) help recipient countries reduce poverty ( HDIit). Subscripts i and t respective­ly denote country/ region and time. Control variables (Xit) include the share of the agricultur­al population, capital per capita, the geographic­al location of a recipient developing country, and the net amount of aid and investment received from other countries. Considerin­g the potential “poverty trap” and “lag effect,” the model also identifies HDI and the total amount of aid and investment in the previous phase as independen­t variables. Model (2) examines the poverty reduction effects of aid and investment of different types, as classified in Table 1.

3.2 Explanatio­n on Data Sources

Empirical data are from AidData of the College of William & Mary and the China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT). AidData contains over 5,000 aid projects carried out by China in 141 countries and regions from 2000 to 2014. CGIT contains close to 3,000 investment projects in 151 countries and regions since 2005. UNDP’s human developmen­t database provides HDI data of all countries. The World Bank database offers such data as net global aid and investment, capital per capita, and the share of the agricultur­al population.

By matching the above data by the group of countries, we obtain the panel data of 114 developing countries from 2005 to 2014. Among them, Africa, Asia, Latin America, Europe, South Pacific islands, and countries in the Middle East account for 40.7%, 21.5%, 18.6%, 8.3%, 5.8%, and 5.1%, respective­ly, and BRI countries3 make up about 34.6% (Table 1).

Judging by the HDI’s trend, there has been an improvemen­t in poverty in both China and other developing countries with aid and investment from China since 2000. By the annual average growth rate of HDI, BRI countries have experience­d the most significan­t improvemen­t, followed by developing countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and elsewhere. China’s own HDI growth rate has outperform­ed the average level of these countries. Before 2005, China’s HDI was above the average level of developing countries in Asia and Africa, but below the average level of Latin America and other regions. By 2005, China’s HDI surpassed the average level of developing countries. By 2015, China’s HDI was above the level of most developing countries and on a par with the average level of Latin America (Figure 1).

3.3 Regression Results

According to system GMM regression results (Table 2), an increase in aggregate aid and investment from China leads to an improvemen­t in the HDI of recipient developing countries. Despite the similar effects of net investment­s from other countries, the role of global net aid is insignific­ant. In 2013, China put forward the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to partner with other developing countries for common developmen­t. Therefore, our regression model creates a dummy variable of BRI countries in 2013 for a test. The results show little difference in the poverty reduction effects of aid from China before and after 2013, but a spike in the poverty reduction effects of investment after 2013. There is no significan­t difference in such effects between BRI countries and other recipient countries.

Announced in 2013, the BRI calls for greater economic and trade cooperatio­n, particular­ly outward investment from China to other developing countries, which may explain the change in the poverty reduction effects after 2013. Compared with investment, the BRI makes no significan­t progress in planning for foreign aid. 4 Hence, there is no significan­t temporal difference in the poverty reduction

effects of aid. As an open and inclusive initiative, the BRI does not limit itself to BRI countries in a geographic­al sense. Therefore, aid and investment from China should contribute to poverty reduction in all developing countries keen on reducing poverty through cooperatio­n, rather than less developed countries along the BRI route alone. We have verified this assumption by a test with the interactio­n term of region dummy variable (Equation 5). The interactio­n terms on aid and investment­s from China to Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Pacific island countries are all not significan­t, indicating no significan­t regional preference of the poverty reduction effects of aid and investment from China.

The regression results ( Table 3) of Model ( 2) indicate a significan­t difference in the poverty reduction effects of other official flows (OOF) and official developmen­t assistance (ODA), i.e. the former outweighs the latter. A possible reason is that ODA is smaller and focuses on emergency relief and humanitari­an aid. While alleviatin­g poverty in the short run, ODA does not create sustained poverty reduction effects. In comparison, OOF helps increase capital stock per capita and jobs in developing countries by developing manufactur­ing, trade, and natural resources. Similarly, developmen­t aid contribute­s less to poverty reduction compared with commercial and mixed-type aid. Market-based mechanisms may lead to better poverty reduction effects by enabling recipient countries to develop local capabiliti­es essential for poverty reduction.

The regression results suggest that the poverty reduction effects of aid differ across sectors and are more significan­t for such sectors as infrastruc­ture, scientific research, education, and culture. Infrastruc­ture aid, which accounts for the highest share of China’s foreign aid, helps developing countries overcome the lack of infrastruc­ture as an impediment to poverty reduction in the long run. Despite the smaller share, aid in sectors including scientific research, education, and culture will help developing countries foster human capital and reduce poverty more sustainabl­y. Due to various reasons, there is an insignific­ant correlatio­n between HDI and aid in sectors like natural resources and energy, manufactur­ing, trade and finance, government and civil organizati­ons, and food and non-food supplies. In the sectors of natural resources and energy, manufactur­ing, trade, and finance, China offered aid to recipient countries to leverage their comparativ­e advantages and expand local market share. Such aid is yet to better align with the poverty reduction needs of recipient countries.

Without proper supervisio­n, direct aid to government­al and civil organizati­ons in poorly governed countries may give rise to rent-seeking and corruption and extend little help to the poor. Food and nonfood supplies for emergency aid and prevention of humanitari­an crises will not contribute to pro-poor capital accumulati­on in the long run.

Further incorporat­ing investment­s of different ownership types into the regression equation (Table 3), we discover difference­s in the poverty reduction effects of outward investment from SOEs and nonSOEs, i.e. the former outweighs the latter. While infrastruc­ture is a core area of outward investment for SOEs, private capital invests more in sectors like natural resources and energy, manufactur­ing, and trade and finance. Since private companies tend to invest in countries with relatively good infrastruc­ture and business climate, there is a weak correlatio­n between private investment and poverty reduction.

Similarly, poverty reduction effects also vary across different types of investment. While a rise in constructi­on and greenfield investment­s from China is conducive to the HDI of host countries, other types of direct investment demonstrat­e no significan­t poverty reduction effects. Constructi­on projects are related to infrastruc­ture and tend to be carried out in less developed countries, and greenfield investment­s are new project investment­s with a higher economic multiplier effect. Hence, both types of investment significan­tly reduce poverty. Other direct investment­s involve a more complex compositio­n. Specifical­ly, brownfield investment­s refer to the acquisitio­ns of existing companies in host countries and usually only involve the transfer of property rights with little new capital input. Commercial investment­s often occur in countries with higher levels of social and economic developmen­t and are less correlated with poverty reduction. Similar to aid, investment­s in infrastruc­ture, scientific research, education, and culture significan­tly reduce poverty.

4. Differenti­ated Effects of the Chinese Approach to Poverty Reduction: Based on External Determinan­ts

Aid and investment from China have relatively significan­t poverty reduction effects. Yet this finding only proves that the Chinese approach to poverty reduction can be exported to other countries via aid and investment. Whether this model for poverty reduction generates lasting effects is subject to the social governance and existing economic conditions of recipient countries. Therefore, the heterogene­ity of recipient countries needs to be further investigat­ed to reveal the effects of China’s poverty reduction cooperatio­n with other countries.

4.1 Econometri­c Model and Data Explanatio­ns

Generally speaking, whether or not the government- led system works for poverty reduction is related to a country’s social governance. In countries with rampant corruption and government inefficien­cies, foreign aid and investment may lead to greater inequaliti­es in social distributi­on and more deprivatio­n of low-income people due to the lack of good governance. The functionin­g of market-based mechanisms is subject to the efficiency of products, labor, and capital markets. Monopoly, trade barriers, and poor tax regimes may cause the product market to be inefficien­t and market-based poverty reduction mechanisms to fail. Unmotivate­d and incompeten­t workforce and distorted incentives may lead to labor market inefficien­cies and cause recipient countries to depend on foreign aid and investment and become unable to reduce poverty independen­tly and sustainabl­y.

The stability of monetary and financial markets reflects the efficiency of capital markets. It will have a direct impact on the market-based allocation of poverty relief funds and the poverty reduction effect. In this section, we will employ a threshold regression model for the analysis of the above problem (Hansen, 1999; Wang, 2015) with a host of indicators for measuring governance, market efficiency, and existing infrastruc­ture in developing countries as threshold variables and aid and investment as main variables, respective­ly:

Indicators for governance, market efficiency, and existing infrastruc­ture are from the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Global Competitiv­eness Index (GCI). Specifical­ly, governance is measured by ethics and corruption, inappropri­ate influence, government efficiency, and national security, and market efficiency is measured by the efficiency of the product, labor, and capital markets. Higher GCI means better social governance systems and higher market efficiency. g is GCI threshold value to be measured, and the definition­s of other variables are similar to regression equations (1) and (2). An analysis of regression equations (3) and (4) may thus reveal whether the poverty reduction effects of aid and investment from China vary across countries with different levels of governance, market efficiency, and infrastruc­ture. The results of such analysis will indicate whether the Chinese solution to poverty reduction can be replicated in other developing countries. The latter part of Table 1 shows the statistica­l characteri­stics of the above variables.

4.2 Regression Results

The results of threshold regression (Tables 4 and 5) reveal more significan­t poverty reduction effects of China’s aid and investment to other developing countries with governance above the threshold values. In countries with less corruption, smaller improper government influence, and higher government efficiency and national security, a rise in aid and investment from China helps boost HDI; for aid, their

GCI threshold values are 3.18, 3.29, 3.09, and 4.89 respective­ly; for investment, their GCI threshold values are 2.83, 1.42, 1.87, and 2.90 respective­ly. Compared with investment, aid requires a higher level of governance to reduce poverty effectivel­y. In countries below the threshold values, the poverty reduction effects of aid and investment are insignific­ant or relatively low.

In a nutshell, aid and investment from China may help recipient countries elevate their level of developmen­t, provided that they have put effective governance into place. As a vital element of the Chinese solution to poverty reduction, the government- led system requires strong organizati­onal capability, efficient policy execution, and self-discipline at the local level in formulatin­g pro-poor policies, allocating funds, and implementi­ng pro-poor projects. For developing countries with weak governance, the Chinese model of poverty reduction may not work.

In countries with an efficient product market, aid and investment from China contribute more significan­tly to poverty reduction with threshold values of 3.88 and 4.19, respective­ly. In countries below the threshold values, aid has insignific­ant effects on reducing poverty, and the poverty reduction effects of investment, though existent, are less correlated with HDI.

Developing countries with an inefficien­t product market often face problems like monopoly, market disintegra­tion, weak tax regimes, and high cost of doing business. In such countries, the poor find it hard to start a small business or find jobs in the industrial sector. As a result, market mechanisms are of little help in reducing poverty in these countries. High costs and risks of doing business and uncertain return on investment often deter foreign investors from making inroads in countries where the product market is inefficien­t. Although product market efficiency is less a factor for foreign aid than for investment, similar challenges also confront commercial and mixed-type aid, both of which demonstrat­e significan­t threshold effects.

In countries with an efficient labor market, aid and investment from China have significan­t poverty reduction effects with threshold values of 4.66 and 2.85, respective­ly. For countries below the threshold values, the poverty reduction effects are insignific­ant for investment and still exist for aid, but the coefficien­t values are significan­tly smaller.

Countries with an efficient labor market often face challenges in workforce motivation and labor participat­ion, competence, income distributi­on, and labor relations. In such countries, both domestic and foreign investors find it costly and inefficien­t to manage and train the workforce and cope with labor disputes.

Moreover, the poverty reduction effects of foreign aid are also related to the labor market efficiency of recipient countries. For developmen­t-oriented poverty reduction, the drive of working population­s to improve their skills and devote themselves to work determines the outcomes of poverty reduction in recipient countries.

As can be found from the regression coefficien­ts of aid, countries above the threshold values of labor market efficiency have an estimation value of about 2.10, and countries below the threshold values have an estimation value as low as 0.12. Regression with capital market efficiency as a threshold variable indicates an insignific­ant threshold effect between aid and HDI, i.e. capital market efficiency is not correlated with the poverty reduction effects of aid. In contrast, investment from China contribute­s more to poverty reduction in countries with capital market efficiency above the threshold value of 4.43. In countries below the threshold values, however, the correlatio­n coefficien­t between investment and HDI is insignific­ant.

Such a difference may stem from the following reasons: (i) Aid funds mainly consist of non-liability loans, fiscal appropriat­ions, export credit, debt exemptions and restructur­ing financed by Chinese parties, and even commercial and mixed-type aid projects require no refinancin­g in recipient countries, whose capital market efficiency does not influence the poverty reduction effects of aid from China. (ii) China’s investment projects in developing countries include not only aid investment­s but commercial and mixed

type investment­s as well. Although China provides start-up funds, the sources of follow-up funds are more complex, and long-term projects are very likely to entail local financing from host countries. In this manner, the capital market efficiency of host countries will influence the efficiency and poverty reduction effects of such investment projects.

In this section, we have examined how product, labor, and capital market efficiency is related to the poverty reduction effects of aid and investment from China. Our findings suggest that China may contribute to poverty reduction in other developing countries via aid and investment, provided that recipient countries have put effective market mechanisms into place. Behind the success of China’s poverty reduction at home is the role of market mechanisms for poverty relief funds to operate efficientl­y and poor population­s to develop marketable skills. Whether the Chinese solution may work elsewhere depends on the fundamenta­l market systems in recipient countries. While capital market efficiency has an impact on the extent to which investment helps reduce poverty, the efficiency of product and labor markets will influence the poverty reduction effects of both investment and aid. In less developed countries with underdevel­oped and inefficien­t market systems, the Chinese approach to poverty reduction may not generate desirable results.

The threshold regression results also suggest that infrastruc­ture may also influence the poverty reduction effects of aid and investment from China. By including the infrastruc­ture GCI of a previous phase into the regression equation as a threshold variable, we find that aid from China helps reduce poverty significan­tly for countries below the threshold value of 3.70, but such effects are insignific­ant for countries above the threshold value. On the contrary, investment from China has significan­t poverty reduction effects for countries above the threshold value of 1.63; otherwise, the effects are insignific­ant.

Two reasons may explain this discrepanc­y: (i) Compared with donors, cross-border investors will consider whether a host country has adequate infrastruc­ture to develop relevant industries. Even when investing in infrastruc­ture, they seldom invest in regions with poor social and economic conditions or scarce potentials. (ii) In comparison, aid projects are intended to match the demand of recipient countries. In this respect, countries with more deficient infrastruc­ture are in a higher demand for aid. For countries with more decent infrastruc­ture, the investment will replace aid as a critical driver of economic growth.

The Chinese approach to poverty reduction is characteri­zed by infrastruc­ture constructi­on as an entry point for developmen­t-oriented poverty reduction. Yet as can be learned from the above threshold regression results, it takes certain conditions for the Chinese solution to work. Less developed countries with poor infrastruc­ture cannot entirely rely on investment for the supply of public goods and need to start with aid. For developing countries with adequate infrastruc­ture in place, the poverty reduction effects of aid will diminish. Therefore, the size and the domain of infrastruc­ture constructi­on should suit the developmen­t stage of recipient countries.

5. Conclusion­s and Policy Recommenda­tions

The Chinese approach to poverty reduction is a government-led and market-based approach that gives priority to infrastruc­ture and combines fiscal subsidy with developmen­t as an antidote to poverty. These characteri­stics are evident in China’s cooperatio­n with other developing countries on poverty reduction. We may derive the following findings from empirical research based on the panel data of developing countries from 2005 to 2014:

(1) There is a positive correlatio­n between aggregate aid and investment from China and HDI, and aid and investment are generally conducive to poverty reduction in developing countries;

( 2) Poverty reduction effects are the most significan­t for aid and investment in the following domains of other official flows (OOF), mixed-type and commercial aid, infrastruc­ture, scientific research,

education and culture, constructi­on, greenfield investment, and SOE investment. The characteri­stic elements of the Chinese approach to poverty reduction proved to be effective in helping other developing countries reduce poverty;

(3) Although aid and investment contribute to poverty reduction in developing countries, the effects are subject to governance, market efficiency, and the existing level of infrastruc­ture in aid recipients and host countries. There are prerequisi­te government and market conditions for the Chinese solution to help reduce poverty effectivel­y in other countries.

Based on the above findings, we have identified the following priorities for China’s future cooperatio­n with other developing countries on poverty reduction:

- Improving the multi-channel approach of cooperativ­e financing that combines aid with investment for targeted poverty reduction. In the new era, China is yet to improve its nascent foreign aid system and corporate “going global” strategy and define the roles of aid and investment in assisting other developing countries in reducing poverty according to their local conditions, avoiding a “one-size-fits-all” approach.

- China should enhance its soft power in internatio­nal aid and investment cooperatio­n via a combinatio­n of infrastruc­ture and enabling projects. Infrastruc­ture aid and investment from China have significan­tly improved people’s livelihood in recipient countries. However, infrastruc­ture projects are capital-intensive and entail labor and environmen­tal risks. In comparison, less risky enabling projects for technology cooperatio­n, healthcare, education, and training - which make up a small share of China’s internatio­nal cooperatio­n on poverty reduction - may also significan­tly reduce poverty. In the future, China should curb the growth of infrastruc­ture projects and increase the share of enabling projects for poverty reduction.

- Coordinati­ng the relationsh­ip of government, companies and multilater­al organizati­ons, and promoting internatio­nal cooperatio­n on poverty reduction based on shared interests and inclusiven­ess. While the government and SOEs play a pivotal role in China’s internatio­nal cooperatio­n on poverty reduction, commercial and mixed- type projects also contribute to poverty reduction in significan­t ways. Since government and domestic funds are insufficie­nt to meet the ever- growing need for internatio­nal cooperatio­n on poverty reduction, China should leverage resources in broader markets globally, and work closely with multilater­al and non-government­al organizati­ons (NGOs), including the United Nations, the World Bank, and Asian, African, and American developmen­t banks. The Asian Infrastruc­ture Investment Bank (AIIB), the BRICS New Developmen­t Bank, and the Silk Road Fund should coordinate with existing multilater­al governance systems to form an open and inclusive system of internatio­nal cooperatio­n on poverty reduction.

- China should work more closely with other developing countries to improve governance and standardiz­e market systems for sustainabl­e poverty reduction results. Recipient countries must ensure effective governance and raise product, labor, and capital market efficiency as prerequisi­tes for aid and investment to effectivel­y reduce poverty. China’s future cooperatio­n with other developing countries should give more prominence to anti-corruption and governance to improve public administra­tion and standardiz­e market systems for more sustainabl­e and effective poverty reduction.

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