China-EU deal expected as US eyes ideological alliance

Triangular game intensifies in trade, diplomacy

The 35th round of negotiations for the China-EU investment agreement – a landmark deal closely binding the economic interests of China and Europe – concludes on Friday and is expected to be signed at the end of 2020 before Joe Biden formally takes his oath as US president. The agreement goes full steam ahead at a time when the US and EU are eyeing to patch up trans-Atlantic ties and Biden actively promotes an ideological alliance to counter China’s influence with Europe now stepping up its pressure on China over human rights issues and harshly criticizing so-called “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy.

The EU has attached extremely high expectations that Biden’s administration will return the US as leader of the West, which could impact China-EU ties as Brussels navigates its ties with Beijing and Washington in a trilateral game of trade and diplomacy, said Chinese experts.

The EU is likely to seek common ground with the Biden administration to pressure China on issues like human rights, ideology, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, but China does not want to see the cooperation and consensus it has reached with the EU to be impacted, the experts noted.

In a Reuters article published on Thursday, EU Ambassador Nicolas Chapuis, said at an energy forum in Beijing that the EU hopes to reach agreement with the new US administration on a policy toward China.

“We need to have a common understanding to say ‘no’ to bullying and intimidation, coercive diplomacy, ‘wolf-warrior’ diplomacy,” he said, according to Reuters.

Responding to Nicolas Chapuis’s “wolf warrior” accusation, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said at Friday’s media briefing that it is unfair stigmatization of China’s diplomacy to claim that it is “coercion” and “wolf warrior” for China to speak the truth and defend its interests and dignity.

Hyping “the common threat from China” won’t help solve key problems and disagreements between the EU and the US, said Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies.

The EU has a long “problem list” for the US after Biden takes office, including trade frictions, digital services tax, carbon tariffs, long-arm jurisdiction, NATO’s budget, ties with Turkey and the Iranian nuclear deal, Cui noted.

“China is prepared for some changes from the EU, but no matter how many differences or frictions occur, we hope trade, investment agreements and other existing cooperation won’t be affected,” Cui noted.

The EU will benefit more than China by signing the agreement as it would make the Chinese market much more open to the EU, but now “the EU believes that China also desperately wants this agreement as it can make China more secure under pressure and trade frictions with the US,” Cui said, adding that a US administration run by establishment elites will return, which could make the EU more assertive in negotiations with China.

Huang Renwei, executive vice dean of the Fudan Institute of Belt and Road & Global Governance, said at the Global Times Annual Forum on December 5 that elites in the Biden’s team will shift competition with China from “hard power” to “soft power.”

The US together with its allies could launch an ideological offensive against China and the Beijing Winter Olympics could be a target.

China is preparing for potential conflict with the US through diplomatic efforts, said experts, noting that ensuring Europe doesn’t follow US’ hostility toward China is a crucial task, and if France and the EU maintain their traditional foreign policy independence, China-EU ties will remain stable no matter what the US does.

The EU has a long “problem list” for the US after Biden takes office, including trade frictions, digital services tax, carbon tariffs, and NATO’s budget.