Meetings to set tone for 2023 as China launches 5th natl economic census
China will conduct its fifth national economic census in 2023 to take stock of the country’s economic and social development, a move that comes as the country braces for a slew of tone-setting meetings and economic symposiums in December, including the annual Central Economic Work Conference, which will lay out the macroeconomic policy foundation for a head start next year.
As the world’s second-largest economy – currently in its third year combating coronavirus and which has been constantly refining its COVID prevention measures to strike a balance between the epidemic control and economic growth, the string of meetings will funnel much-needed optimism to stabilize market expectations and inject confidence, which “could be more precious than gold” against unprecedented headwinds next year ranging from a global recession to a financial storm fermented by US irresponsible policies, observers said.
In recent days, bullish sentiment on the Chinese economy has been steadily building up, visibly in the consecutive gains Chinese stocks recorded and foreign companies’ dialed-up investment plans in China.
Injecting optimism
The upcoming national economic census will include an input-output survey, the State Council, China’s cabinet, said in a notice issued on Thursday.
The census will cover all legal entities, industrial activity units and self-employed households engaged in secondary and tertiary industry activities in China. The survey aims to objectively reflect China’s new progress in such areas as promoting high-quality growth, constructing new development patterns and building a modern economic system.
“It is a regular survey, conducted every five years as usual, but it comes at a special time as China, entering the third year of its fight against the epidemic,
is in urgent need of a renewed appraisal to gauge the soundness of economic operations,” Tian Yun, former vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, told the Global Times.
It is also hoped the new census will offer a further glimpse into China’s economic potential, as the 2018 survey did not capture emerging businesses such as livestreaming sales, digital economy and other services sectors, or other advanced manufacturing and newenergy industries, said Cong Yi, dean of the School of Marxism at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics.
The census is set to add to a flurry of closely-watched key conferences that take place the same month, including the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in early December and the annual Central Economic Work Conference scheduled in mid-December, which will shed light on the economic path forward.
In cities hit hardest by the new round of Omicron outbreaks, such as Guangzhou, the bustle of activity has returned and factories are humming again, after China continues to optimize anti-epidemic policies in accordance with the newly released 20 prevention and control measures in recent days.
On Thursday, Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan underlined the importance of continuously optimizing China’s response to COVID-19.
“It is a positive sign, boding well for the recovery momentum. The slew of key meetings will offer opportunity to get a better glimpse of future policy priorities and direction from the top authorities,” Tian said.
Tian stressed that it is important how Chinese policymakers manage expectations. Short-term fluctuations are not intimidating as long as we know where China is heading in the long term.
Bullish sentiment
Yi Gang, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, said on Friday at a seminar that China has put “an accommodative monetary policy in place to help with economic recovery and maximize employment.”
According to predictions from observers, the priority for next year’s economic policy is to further coordinate economic growth with COVID prevention measures so as to sustain internal economic drivers such as consumption, given a looming global recession, an international financial storm for which the US is the culprit, and other unprecedented geopolitical uncertainties.
Amid the ongoing optimization of virus prevention measures, Chinese stocks have recorded rallies for consecutive days, while Wall Street banks are also largely elevating their forecasts of Chinese market earnings.
US investment bank JPMorgan has forecast a 9-10 percent jump in Chinese stocks by the end of next year.