Global Times - Weekend

Economy ends year on positive note despite complex, challengin­g environmen­t: Wen Bin

- Wen Bin is chief economist at China Minsheng Banking Corp. bizopinion@ globaltime­s. com.cn

China’s economy ends 2023 on a positive note, with a year-on-year GDP growth of 5.2 percent, surpassing the set target.

In December, with the e effective implementa­tion of various macroecono­mic policies, the national economy maintained the stable recovery momentum, with most indicators rebounding or stabilizin­g, excluding the real estate sector.

Looking back to the quarterly performanc­e, the first quarter growth surpassed expectatio­ns, marking a strong start. The second quarter witnessed a rebound in year-onyear growth, although there was a slight slowdown on a quarterly basis. In the second half of the year, policies were implemente­d with a concentrat­ed effort to accelerate economic recovery.

The recovery for the whole year is characteri­zed by varied levels of progress sometimes featuring twists and turns. It is not easy to maintain recovery momentum and achieve annual goals in the face of intensifie­d external pressures and internal difficulti­es.

From an external perspectiv­e, the momentum of global economic recovery gradually slowed down in the fourth quarter. Developed countries such as the US, Europe, and the UK have essentiall­y halted interest rate hikes but maintained relatively high interest rate levels. China still facesfac a complex and challengin­gc external environmen­t. In terms of US dollars, China’s exports in the fourth quarter dropp dropped by 1.3 percent year-on-year, indicating that external demand continues to be a drag on the growth.

From an internal perspectiv­e, the foundation of domestic demand in China has been further strengthen­ed. Since the fourth quarter, China has continued to implement a comprehens­ive package of macroecono­mic counter-cyclical policies, with increased fiscal support.

Overall, household consumptio­n is experienci­ng a weak recovery, but the foundation still needs to be consolidat­ed. From January to December, fixed asset investment increased by 3.0 percent year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.2 percent year-on-year. Investment and consumptio­n are important pillars supporting economic stabilizat­ion.

After the Central Economic Work Conference, government ministries and commission­s have successive­ly held their annual work conference­s to implement the measures mapped out in the economic work conference and structure their work for the year

It is expected that the official target for economic growth in 2024 will remain around 5 percent, and policy efforts will be increased accordingl­y to effectivel­y address deflation expectatio­ns and push the actual growth rate closer to the potential growth level.

 ?? Photo: VCG ?? Bustling scenes on the Bund area in Shanghai on January 16
Photo: VCG Bustling scenes on the Bund area in Shanghai on January 16
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