Ankara alliance with Washington will remain despite heated post- coup rhetoric
The coup attempt in Turkey on July 15 has resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of injuries. After the coup was defeated, many rallied behind the government, but the aftermath has seen the authorities crack down fiercely on journalists, schools, the military and religious preachers. Supposed supporters of Fethullah Gulen, whom the government blamed for the coup, have been purged in their thousands. A large number of private schools have been closed.
Meanwhile, Turkey accelerated mending ties with Russia, while its relations with the US seemed to encounter a crisis.
The key to the current Turkey- US relations is the Kurds in Syria. Prior to the July 15 coup attempt, the military actions against the Islamic State ( IS) led by the US had achieved significant progress. The US relies heavily on and supports the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Syria, which is the main ground force fighting IS. However, Turkey calls them a terrorist group. The Turkish government worries that the expansion of Syrian Kurds, under the assistance from the US, will ignite the separatist forces within Kurds inside Turkey.
The Gulen factor also counts. The Turkish authorities accused the USbased cleric of plotting the coup and required the US to extradite him. The pro- government media accused the US of being involved in the coup. On various occasions, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused Gulen of being behind everything that goes wrong in Turkey.
But Washington denied any connection with the coup and asked Turkey to provide evidence of Gulen’s involvement with the coup before they would extradite him.
Historically, Turkey is a unique ally of the US. As a member of NATO, it is the only Middle Eastern country within the military organization. The alliance between the US and Turkey does not mean the two would not quarrel. Even during the Cold- War era when Turkey served as an important frontier to contain the Soviet Union, it had several conflicts of interest with the US. The two had serious divergences on how to cope with Turkey’s economic crisis in the mid 1950s and how to solve the drug issues in eastern Turkey. In the 1960s when the US supported Cyprus’ union with Greece, followed by Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus, WashingtonAnkara ties reached thier lowest ebb. But each time, the two would reconcile. After the Turkish military coup on September 12, 1980, the country conducted liberal economic reforms under the guidance of the US and the IMF and achieved remarkable economic progress. It also stood firmly with the US during the Gulf War. A worsening relationship with the US will be too much for Turkey to bear. Look at the example of Iran, which was sanctioned by the US- led West over the nuclear issue and experienced economic recession and serious inflation. If Erdogan- ruled Turkey continues to irritate the US, Washington may use the Kurds in northern Syria and the deteriorating Kurdish issue will place Turkey in a dilemma. A few years ago, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party proposed the vision for a “new Turkey” heading to 2023 and its time is running out. If Turkey wants a favorable environment, it must retain its alliance with the US.
Behind Turkey’s recent anti- US moves is Erdogan’s use of domestic nationalism and populism. Since the 1980s when the Turkish economy began to take off, the newly emerged middle class have advocated nationalism and Islamism. Against such a background, people began to discuss neo- Ottoman ideas during the era of president Turgut Ozal.
Former prime minister and leader of the Justice and Development Party Ahmet Davutoglu gave a full boost of this concept. He demanded Turkey develop ties with neighboring countries and other Islamic nations so as not to simply follow the West.
After the latest coup, Turkey adopted a high- profile approach to ask for the extradition of Gulen, which is playing to nationalism and inciting anti- US sentiments. But such tactics can hardly be sustained as nationalism is not a steady driving force for a nation’s long- term security and economic prosperity.
The US- Turkey relationship will not suffer a “crash,” but may experience a temporary chill and readjustment. The more of a fuss Turkey makes, the more it means that Turkey has not got what it desires. The war of words will not have any real impact on US- Turkey ties. From a long- term perspective, Turkey will continue to be a US ally.
Zan Tao is a research fellow at Pangoal Institution, a Beijing- based public policy think tank and an associate professor at Peking University. Chen Gong is a postgraduate student at the Department of History, Peking University. opinion@ globaltimes. com. cn Page Editor: sunxiaobo@ globaltimes. com. cn