Washington’s engagement key to solving North Korean nuclear crisis
The death of Kim Jong- nam, halfbrother of North Korean leader Kim Jong- un, on February 13 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia happened at a very sensitive time. On the day before, Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile, violating the UN Security Council resolution, while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was meeting with US President Donald Trump in Florida. Apparently, Pyongyang had the missile test to sound out how the new US administration would respond.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced later that China would suspend imports of coal from North Korea for the rest of this year. China is taking a step further in implementing the UN Security Council resolution 2321.
Many details about Kim Jong- nam’s death are still unknown. But various speculations and accusations have badly damaged North Korea’s international image and made the country more isolated in the international community.
For more than 20 years, the ups and downs on the Korean Peninsula have indicated that unless the US- North Korean relations change fundamentally, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula can hardly be realized. As North Korea takes a firm stance on developing nuclear weapons, the US has doubts about achieving denuclearization through the Six- Party Talks and demands Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear development before resuming the talks.
Recently, the proposed “Track 1.5” talks between North Korean diplomats and former US officials, reportedly scheduled to be held in New York this week, were canceled after Kim Jongnam’s death.
Even if the talks could be held, the prospects of such engagement are dim. North Korea might want to know more about the US’ policy toward it through such talks. But since many important positions are yet to be filled, the Trump administration still hasn’t formed a clear attitude toward North Korea. Therefore, even if such engagement could be carried out, the impact would be very limited.
A key factor is the US evaluation of North Korea’s launch capacity of intercontinental ballistic missiles ( ICBM). The US intelligence agencies generally believe that North Korea’s ICBM capacity is improving, but won’t be able to attack continental US for years. Therefore, solving the North Korean nuclear issue is not urgent for the US at the present.
Once North Korea’s ICBM can reach US soil, it is highly possible that the issue will be solved by force. North Korea may have misjudged the US and not fully realized the risks.
So far, North Korea has not touched the US’ red line. Thus, the situation has not yet spiraled out of control. At present, South Korea is mired in political crisis. The US and South Korea have watched North Korea closely and their joint drill will be carried out next month as scheduled. The two won’t accept Pyongyang’s proposal to the previous US administration that Washington and Seoul halt military exercises if they want Pyongyang to stop nuclear tests.
China is faced with an increasingly dangerous situation on the Korean Peninsula. Its security interests would be damaged if North Korea keeps performing nuclear tests, and the US and South Korea have decided to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. Implementing UN Security Council resolutions 2270 and 2321 may be a better choice for China.
The sudden death of Kim Jong- nam has again drawn the public attention to the peninsula. All related issues highlight the danger of nuclear development in the area and push the international community to step up its efforts and realize the denuclearization in the peninsula.