A slim chance of US- NK meeting is missed
The news that China will ban all coal imports from North Korea from February 19 till the end of this year has created waves. To some extent, this is a response to North Korea’s most recent missile test. It emphasizes China’s seriousness in implementing UN Security Council resolutions to punish Pyongyang.
The move is also in line with the goal of US- led Western countries to toughen sanctions on North Korea. It is hoped that the move can create a shift in US President Donald Trump’s North Korea policy and urge Washington to directly converse with Pyongyang or even restart the Six- Party Talks.
However, the proposed “Track 1.5” talks between a North Korean government delegation and a group of former US officials scheduled this week has been canceled as the US State Department refused to issue visas to the North Korean diplomats.
The meeting could have been the first between the US and North Korea since Trump took office. Trump once said he welcomed North Korean leader Kim Jong- un to the US and they should be “eating a hamburger on a conference table.” He also showed restraint toward North Korea’s latest missile test.
However, Trump said in a Reuters interview last Thursday that he was concerned about the test and was looking at boosting missile defense for Japan and South Korea. He did not rule out meeting Kim in the future under certain circumstances but said it might be too late.
There are several reasons behind the US’ refusal to speak to North Korea. First, less than one month after Trump took office, North Korea fired a ballistic missile, the first such test of the year which was widely seen as a challenge to the new US president.
It also aimed at the visit of US Defense Secretary James Mattis to Japan and South Korea and attempted to contain the military drills between the US and South Korea which will be held in March. This will inevitably anger the aggressive Trump.
Also, speculations are running high that the Pyongyang regime planned the attack that led to the death of Kim Jongnam, Kim Jong- un’s half brother. This has once again triggered the North Ko- rean nuclear threat theory, and US lawmakers advocated putting North Korea back on the terror- state list.
Meanwhile, South Korea is highly aware of the US overtopping diplomacy that bypasses South Korea to directly communicate with North Korea. Seoul is expected to thwart dialogues between the two sides.
On February 16, when US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung- se met in Germany, Yun reiterated that any deal with Pyongyang should aim to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program in a “complete, verifiable and irreversible” manner. He also rejected pursuing talks with North Korea on denuclearization and a peace treaty simultaneously.
In addition, US political and academic circles have come to a consensus that North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear weapons. There is little chance that North Korea will shift its policies. This has shaken US confidence toward talks with North Korea.
By canceling the talks, the two sides will miss an opportunity to evaluate each other and ease the current tense situation. Washington did not deliver a good- will gesture or signal that it would make more efforts to engage with Pyongyang.
It was expected that China’s ban on North Korean coal import will propel Trump to give up the futile “strategic endurance” policy adopted by the Obama administration and turn to a more proactive stance against Pyongyang. There was hope that an unconditional talk may take place between the US and North Korea and the US could advance peace and security in the Korean Peninsula together with China. But the reality is the opposite.
The Trump administration is going to realize that both the US and North Korea should agree to the “Track 1.5” talks. They should take into account each other’s concerns and put forward realistic conditions for talks. They should break the current deadlock of bilateral ties and resolve the “most dangerous foreign policy challenge” as Obama once said to avoid a war in which no one is the winner.