Oppositions and complications surround Britain’s withdrawal from EU Anatomy of Brexit
Tens of thousands of Brexit protesters gathered in London on Saturday, just four days before the British government officially starts the withdrawal process from the European Union ( EU) on Wednesday.
Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start the two- year ‘ divorce’ process.
Since British voted to leave the EU by 52 to 48 percent on June 23, 2016, the country has remained divided. Although the Brexit process cannot be overturned, the protesters argued that the 48 percent need to be heard as well.
David Dennis, a protester, told the Global Times that “although it’s time for the EU to reform, its historical achievement in bringing peace, stability and prosperity cannot be ignored.”
The anti- Brexit march took place as 27 EU member states’ leaders gathered in Rome to mark the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaties of Rome, which laid the foundation for the bloc. The upcoming Brexit is believed to be the biggest blow to the EU’s credibility and influence since World War II.
Facing the music
Nine months after the EU Referendum, it seems that those who voted to remain have come to terms with the Brexit result.
Alex Fox, a lecturer at a university in Southampton, told the Global Times that he voted to remain in the EU in the referendum and was deeply disappointed in the result, but “I have accepted the outcome now and I think the government must negotiate to leave.”
Fox believed that Brexit can be an opportunity. “I think many of those who voted to leave did so because they felt that the UK government’s policy was not beneficial for them, that life was becoming harder, and success more elusive,” he said, adding that for those people, the gamble of leaving was worth taking.
Wang Xin’gang, a parish councillor for Claygate in North Surrey, told the Global Times, “I support the outcome of a democratic vote.”
Most of the people in his area voted for staying. When the results of the referendum came out, many were disappointed. “But because this is the result of a democratic vote, we all respect it,” Wang said, adding that he has noted the change of attitude in his constituency.
“Voters are gradually facing the music and hoping the government could do the best job in Brexit,” he said.
Brexit is an unprecedented event and there will be lots of uncertainties. However, the British economy has been quite good in recent years, which, to some extent, have saved the country from rainy days, Wang added.
“Brexit is a huge waste of government resources,” David Natsios, a manager at an insurance company in London, told the Global Times.
Natsios said the rise in the inflation driven by the drop in British currency will probably be difficult for those living on below average salaries. “In the long run, the end result will probably be similar to now,” Natsios noted.
According to the forecast by the Bank of England, the inflation could reach close to 3 percent this year as the Brexit fallout continues.
The weakening value of the British pound amid Brexit uncertainties also made imported goods more expensive.
Bumpy road ahead
According to a recent Yougov poll, Prime Minister Theresa May has managed to come up with a Brexit plan that the British public agree on: taking Britain out of the single market and customs union, but trying to negotiate a new free trade and customs deal with the EU.
However, getting the rest of Europe to agree will be a very difficult challenge.
The main issue is what happens after May officially notifies the rest of the EU on Wednesday. Unless both sides agree on an extension, the UK and the EU have two years to settle on a divorce deal.
With what May will end up bringing back from Brussels up in the air, banks in The City are holding back from moving new resources to London and shifting their staff in the midst of Brexit.
Goldman Sachs is going to start moving hundreds of staff out of London and other banks such as HSBC, UBS and JP Morgan are also making adjustments.
Professor Iain Begg with European Institute at London School of Economics told the Global Times, “there is going to be a GDP loss in a Brexit scenario. If that happens, jobs will be lost. There is a straightforward connection.”
The immediate financial instability is only the first of many big challenges for the UK authorities in the future.
The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said on March 13 that she wants another Scottish independence referendum set between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.
Sturgeon insists that the move was needed to protect Scottish interests as Scotland vote by 62 percent to 38 percent in favor of Remain in the referendum, adding another complication for Theresa May.
May blocked the initiative by saying “now is not the time” for a second Scottish independence referendum before Brexit, which would jeopardize the UK’s ability to negotiate with the EU.
“It’s hard to predict what might actually happen,” Alex Fox said, adding that his biggest concern is that the British government gets it completely wrong by negotiating too hard with the EU.
“We need our friends in Europe and we are still in this situation together,” said Fox.