China- Europe cooperation indispensable as US’ decline accelerates

Uncertainty has become the hallmark of Donald Trump’s presidency. This brings about all sorts of dangers and risks because nothing is certain. This is true of both his economic and security policies – his stance against free trade does not mean that the US will benefit and his stance against Washington’s commitment elsewhere in the world does not necessarily bring more security to Americans.

Washington is on the decline and its global leadership is ebbing. The US was the winner of the Cold War and did dominate world politics almost single- handedly, after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, for a decade or so. But other countries are on the rise, and the US is no longer able to impose its will over regions like the Middle East.

This acceleration of the decline of the US – not the decline as much as the acceleration – comes as a surprise to those who have either benefited from US capacity to rule or have prepared themselves to rise up to achieve the same ambition.

There is no doubt that the world has become multipolar. Other countries and regions aspire to play in the global “Champions League” too, including India, Brazil, Russia, Africa, the Islamic world and so on. But whatever their hopes are, they are still, at best, relegated to the “Premier League” for another generation.

A milestone book on WWI, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, published five years ago, called the Europeans “Sleepwalkers,” since they were not aware where they were going in 1914. Are the Europeans “sleepwalking” again, today? According to Winston Churchill, the UK’s wartime prime minister, Europe did live under a protection shield provided by US military. Europe benefitted the most from US’ role as the world’s policeman, and European governments could claim their national sovereignty.

As long as US’ guarantee of security was credible, European national irresponsibility did not matter much. The British withdrawal from the EU is an anachronistic example of that sort of irresponsibility, and does not only tow the UK towards an untenable situation, but weakens Europe as a whole.

This week, the heads of state and government of the still 28 EU members gathered to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties, which launched a Common Market, in 1957. They convened upon a “vision,” a response to the “unprecedented challenges, both global and domestic – regional conflicts, terrorism, growing migratory pressures, protectionism and social and economic inequalities.”

The answer from the heads of state and government is to make the Union “stronger and more resilient, through even greater unity and solidarity.” As the Rome declaration reads, “in the 10 years to come we want a Union that is safe and secure, prosperous, competitive, sustainable and socially responsible and with the will and the capacity of playing a key role in the world and of shaping globalization.”

China is confronted with a similar challenge, facing the dramatically accelerated US decline under Trump: to assume, quicker than scheduled, responsibility in order to avoid global disaster, and help the world find a path to a sustainable future. The global demand for reliability and wisdom is more acute than ever before, and China can provide such guidance.

The need for cooperation between China and Europe has increased due to the withdrawal of the US. There should be a renewal of this cooperation between an awakened, strengthened, unified Europe and a responsible, open- minded China. But first of all, they should learn more about each other. Together, they should not lose sight of the fact that the US is still a very powerful player – but declining. They should harmonize their economic development paths, start to share responsibility for peace and security in the world, find and implement ways for a sustainable global development, take on board other countries and regions and integrate them in a vision of “Our Common Future” – that was the title and is, indeed, the legacy of an exactly 30 years old UN report on the need for a new path of development. It is up to China and Europe to make us look ahead – together.