Path to Brexit obscured by roadblocks
One week after the London terror attack on March 22, British Prime Minister Theresa May triggered article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The door for the UK disengagement from the EU is now open. It will take at least two years for it to close and for the Brexit process to be completed. The possibility that it will take even longer is high. The initial positions of London and Brussels are contradictory. The UK wants to discuss the terms of the withdrawal in parallel with its future relationship with the EU. By contrast, the European Commission has clarified that negotiations over a future deal cannot start until the “withdrawal agreement” is finalized.
The Politico magazine expects forthcoming negotiations to be “tedious, nasty and painful.” And The Guardian decided to present the obscure situation by publishing a smart front- page depicting Europe as a puzzle with the UK missing. As British wartime prime minister Winston Churchill said, “this is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning.”
The biggest challenge for the UK is to keep as many privileges as possible when it’s no longer part of the EU. Broadly speaking, it is proposing a new strategic partnership with the EU. This partnership may include a free trade agreement as well as a framework for cooperation in fields such as security and foreign policy. There are two main cards London will play in its talks with Brussels. The first is that if high tariffs are introduced in bilateral trade, losses will be reciprocal and not only harm itself. And the second is that without its contribution, Brussels will completely fail to make concrete and efficient progress in matters of defense.
As far as the British national interest is concerned, May is very worried about the rise of independence sentiments from within the UK. She often pleads for national unity like she did during a recent visit to Edinburgh and in her meeting with First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon. Sturgeon won a parliamentary vote for a second referendum on Scotland’s independence. Her vision is an independent Scotland seeking full EU membership. Although current polls predict a “no” vote, the political landscape is not clear and Brexit
negotiations could have an impact on Scottish public opinion.
In any case, the UK can look toward the future by exploring the opportunity of free trade deals with countries outside the EU. China, India and the US constitute remarkable examples. Theresa May has already discussed some plans with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump. Specific details need to be figured out first but the “free trade diplomacy” might be employed by London as an alternative in the next months and years. Although it is not legally allowed to proceed before the Brexit deal is finalized, this obstacle can be overcome.
From a European perspective, the EU finds itself in a labyrinth. Apart from theoretical commitments that it will defend the rights of European citizens living in the UK and that it will adopt necessary guidelines in the European Council on April 29, it has to find a mutually acceptable modus vivendi with the UK without encouraging centrifugal trends in other member states. On the one hand, Brussels needs to protect European exports to the UK. And on the other, it feels obliged to save the integrity of the single market and also the eurozone.
The EU position is also difficult regarding the future financing of the European budget. That is because the UK is the third largest net contributor and other member- states will have to increase their contribution in the future. For the time being, the European Commission calculates that the UK should pay 60 billion euros ($ 64.5 billion) for leaving the EU. But the UK is confident it will face down what it considers to be spurious demands. Mutual concessions will be needed from both sides during disengagement discussions.
In view of the forthcoming difficult talks, the only area where London and Brussels seem to completely agree is that a hard and disorderly Brexit will benefit no one. Nonetheless, London will proceed to the negotiations table as a single nation- state with specific policies and priorities. For its part, the EU will have to bridge the different opinions from member states regarding Brexit while it might also encounter new
internal crises.