Can Tillerson’s Russia visit instigate a rapprochement in Washington- Moscow ties?
Russian- US relations are at the crossroads again. This time, the two nations must choose whether to worsen their ties or to find some common ground and start making some improvements.
During their meeting in Moscow, both Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov and the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson agreed that bilateral relations were at a low point. It may be at the lowest point since the end of the Cold War. As a result there is no trust between the two sides. In the meantime, there are some signs that the two countries are not happy about the current state of their bilateral relations.
However, there is a mutual desire to avoid the worst- case scenario. In particular, Lavrov stated, “we are being realistic, and we do understand that in order to overcome these obstacles we have to make efforts, and we seek to do that. We understand that our American counterparts are going to move towards us as well, and our president reaffirmed our will to do that.” Tillerson said, “we need to attempt to put an end to this steady degradation, which is doing nothing to restore the trust between our two countries or to make progress on the issues of the greatest importance to both of us.” As a starting point, it is helpful that both sides realize that there is a window of opportunity to prevent confrontation.
At first, Tillerson’s meeting with President Vladimir Putin was not on the agenda. But despite his busy schedule, Putin found time to meet with Tillerson. It is a clear indication that Russia is open for possible cooperation and is interested in working together to resolve international issues.
So what was on the agenda at the meeting between Tillerson and Putin? US President Donald Trump gives a high priority to fighting terrorism, in particular the Islamic State. This priority does not instigate any objections from Russia. The same goes for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as the current development is dangerous and aggravating to the region. Trump inherited a nearly broken relationship with Russia from his predecessor. Obviously, the US airstrike on the Syrian airbase has cast doubt on the possibility of improving Russian- US relations. This has even led some observers to believe the bilateral relationship could be rolled back to what it was during the Cuban missile crisis. Luckily, it did not happen. During the talks in Moscow, both Lavrov and Tillerson did not pay much attention to the strike on the Syrian airbase. Tillerson did not raise the issue of Russia abandoning support for Syrian President Bashar al- Assad in exchange for its returning to the G7 group and there were no ultimatums or unreasonable demands from the US side. As for the results achieved in this meeting, both sides have agreed to establish a joint working group to look at issues which require immediate attention from the two countries. An- other possible leverage to improve the bilateral relations is business. Lavrov stressed that there is a mutual interest in bolstering interactions in business. The Russian side came up with the initiative to support direct ties in this important field.
Does it mean that Russia and the US are headed to a rapprochement and diplomatic advancement? No, there is no strong confidence.
Disagreements on Syria, Ukraine and Crimea still remain. The US administration is not going to remove these issues from its political agenda.
One of the most pressing issues is Syria and the US military leaders have just announced that they are considering the possibility of introducing a no- fly zone in that country, which can aggravate Russian- US relations.
Trump is under heavy pressure and criticism from Congress and the US mass media. The inexperience of Trump in foreign policy could still result in many pitfalls in his term in office. His unpredictability and uncertainty of his intentions can create problems for Russian leaders.
One should take a balanced and pragmatic approach. We should not have high expectations for the development of US- Russia relations. High expectations may end up with devastating disappointments.