Furthering Japan- Russia rapport restricted by Abe’s ties to the West
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Moscow and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, according to the Asahi Shimbun. During the talks, the two leaders have not only discussed the North Korean nuclear crisis, but also reached a consensus over sending a joint survey team to study the Northern Territories, which is called the Southern Kurils by Russia, as well as promoting joint economic development between Japan and Russia.
A day after his tour in Moscow, Abe visited the UK on Sunday and talked with British Prime Minister Theresa May at her country residence of Chequers. The two reached an agreement over the promotion of global free trade.
In mid- December 2016, Putin arrived in Japan for his first diplomatic visit to the country in 11 years. He met with Abe in the latter’s hometown of Nagato in Yamaguchi prefecture. Therefore, Abe’s recent tour was a return visit out of politeness and an attempt to further consolidate achievements made during the bilateral summit last year.
However, Abe did not make Moscow the sole destination of his tour, but flied to the UK soon after his meeting with Putin. There are two motivations for such an arrangement. On the one hand, given the current tensions between Russia and Western countries, Abe’s journey to the UK was a signal to the US and European nations that Japan’s relationship with Russia is moderate and Tokyo will keep its distance from Moscow. On the other, May has called a snap general election for June. Abe’s visit was, thus, to ensure that the interests of Japanese companies in the UK will not be impacted.
Abe was clearly aware that it is not realistic to completely resolve the disputes over the Northern Territories with Russia, yet he still made the issue one of the top priorities on the agenda during the latest meeting with Putin. Different from dealing with territorial disputes with China and South Korea, Tokyo has always asked the Russian government to return the sovereignty of the Northern Territories. This is because the region is now completely under Russia’s control and more importantly, Japan can continue to dilute its role as an aggressor during WWII through the issue.
Although to which country do the Northern Territories belong cannot be made clear in a few words, when Japan asks Russia to give them back, the former’s main goal is to hype up the sentiment that Tokyo was once a victim of the war, which made Japan’s territory incomplete.
Despite the just concluded meeting between Abe and Putin, the Kremlin is not expected to make any major compromises over territorial controversies any time soon, due to the nation’s upcoming election next year and the recent protests and demonstrations across Russia.
Irregularly scheduled meetings between Abe and Putin will help improve the relationship between the two sides. Yet under the framework of US- Japan alliance, Tokyo has been closely follow- ing the footsteps of Washington, which will, to a large extent, influence the development of Tokyo- Moscow ties.
Before US President Donald Trump abruptly ordered the airstrike against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al- Assad in early April, Washington did not notify Moscow in advance. This has deteriorated the US- Russian relations. Soon after the incident, Abe immediately voiced support for Trump’s decision, which would undoubtedly jeopardize his mutual trust with Putin.
In terms of the recent situation on the Korean Peninsula, the White House’s attitude toward Pyongyang is getting tougher and Abe expressed his support for Trump’s “all options are on the table” approach to deal with North Korea.
In the meantime, it was reported that a Russian company will begin a regular cargo- passenger ferry service between Russia and North Korea in May. Given the divergences between the US and Russia in this regard, the differences in dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis might also become a potential threat to the future of the Tokyo- Moscow relationship.
Further development of ties between Japan and Russia cannot be reached overnight. Whether the territorial disputes can be settled and whether the treaty of peace and friendship between Tokyo and Moscow can be inked are not just a touchstone of Japan’s independent diplomacy, but more of a test to examine how much goodwill Abe has toward Russia.
The author is a PhD candidate with the Tokyo- based Toyo University. opinion@ globaltimes. com. cn