Forum: Terrorists continue their asymmetric war
Manchester is the new victim of Islamic terrorism in Europe. Following recent attacks in Paris, Brussels, Berlin, London and other European cities, this British city now experiences the pain. Salman Ramadan Abedi, 22- year- old of Libyan descent born in Manchester, killed at least 22 people in an explosion at the Ariana Grande concert and caused injuries to approximately 60. This was a suicide bombing and the Islamic State ( IS) claimed responsibility.
For months it was an open secret in the UK that the country could be a target of the IS. At the beginning of February 2017, for instance, dominant tabloid The Sun quoted London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan, saying: “It’s when, not if.” Ironically, this observation was proven to be correct only six weeks later. On March 22, Khalid Masood, a 52- year- old British- born man, killed five people and caused injuries to approximately 50 with a car and a knife in London. The IS considered him “one of its soldiers,” even though there is no clear evidence that he had links with the terrorist organization.
Manchester marks the deadliest terror attack in the UK since the atrocities of July 7, 2005, widely known as 7/ 7. Al Qaeda terrorists spread death and fear to Londoners using public transport, namely the underground and the bus. At that time, the main reason for the attack was retaliation against the UK decision to participate in the US- led war against Iraq two years earlier.
However, the nature of terrorism is not the same 12 years after 7/ 7. That is because Al Qaeda is different from the IS in the way they operate. Specifically, the former’s attacks were centrally coordinated and required approval by its leadership. In contrast, the latter’s attacks do not always need similar planning or guidance.
The IS employs a “bottom up” approach. The terrorist organization has managed to mobilize its supporters, inspiring them according to relevant Islam readings. In Europe, these supporters are often born in Western countries, are radicalized and then trained by the IS, normally but not necessarily in the Middle East. They then go back to their home countries and are able to act independently using their training and practice against their targets.
As a result, it will be particularly hard to prevent terrorist assaults in the future. Of course, the scale of the new attacks is not as large or impressive as it used to be in the past when airplanes were easier to hijack by terrorists. Nonetheless, the substance is similar. A car- driver, a suicide- attacker or a knife- holder can still kill many in support of a terrorist organization.
The British police had dealt with Abedi in the past. However, although he was known to the security services, he was not part of any active investigation or regarded as a high risk. He was viewed as a peripheral figure in much the same way as Masood. This failure outlines how difficult it is for the authorities to locate and monitor people who could be future terrorists.
In some cases, the use of violence or bizarre social behavior can be signs of extreme radicalization, but in others the distance between the two tendencies remains large. Abedi and Masood belonged to the first case. So, even if more funds were invested on intelligence and surveillance, which has to be done, complete suc- cess is not guaranteed.
Looking toward the future, the IS enjoys two significant advantages. The first is that it is using social media to present its cause, disseminate its messages and more importantly recruit new soldiers. Western social media companies are moving toward blocking inappropriate content but cryptography might be a subsequent solution for terrorists. And the second advantage is that the IS is exploiting the Islamophobia prevailing in Western societies to increase the number of its Muslim supporters keen on “defending” the honor of the Muslim world.
British Prime Minister Theresa May said after the Manchester attack that “the terrorists will never win” and focused on her country’s values. She can count on the support of almost all countries in the world, which have loudly expressed their solidarity. Apart from nice statements, the reality is that safety and security can no longer be taken for granted in European countries. Terror attacks are unfortunately now a part of daily life and ordinary citizens will have to learn to live with this fear.