Islamic State dream of caliphate ends, but terror threat lives on

Liberating Mosul from the rule of the Islamic State ( IS) is a great victory for Iraq’s anti- terror war, but the war- torn country still faces huge challenges of national reconstruction and reconciliation, experts said.

Mosul, the capital city of Iraq’s northern province of Nineveh and the second largest Iraqi city, was liberated by Iraqi forces and the US- led coalition after a nine- month fi erce battle to drive out IS, which used the city as its de facto capital.

It was in Mosul that IS leader Abu Bakr al- Baghdadi declared in 2014 the establishment of IS, a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria. The fall of Mosul symbolizes the collapse of IS in Iraq.

There is no doubt that the victory in Mosul opened doors for national reconstruction and reconciliation, as desired by most Iraqis after suff ering from years of violence, war and destruction.

However, due to the competing infl uence of many regional and foreign powers, as well as tribal and ethnic rifts, the country faces huge challenges in its long road to reconciliation.

“The recapture of the city was a great victory in the antiterrorism war. It broke the back of the terrorist group, demolishing its self- declared Islamic ‘ caliphate’ in Iraq and Syria,” Abdullah al- Jubouri, an Iraqi army offi cer, told Xinhua.

He said that the victory is “a complete reversal of the IS sweep” and would leave the militant group only a few isolated pockets of territory in Iraq.

Hossam El Dajny, a Palestinian political analyst, told Xinhua that the loss of Mosul dealt “a severe blow” to IS, as it is a symbol of the Islamic caliphate it wants to create.

Adam Hoff man, researcher at the Moshe Danyan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University in Israel, told Xinhua that Mosul has been the hallmark of the IS caliphate, so its liberation is “hugely symbolic and important” for Iraq because it is a very serious blow to the caliphate.

Experts also said that Mosul’s liberation will pave the way for national reconstruction and reconciliation in the postIS era.

“The defeat of the extremist Sunni IS group would be very helpful for the country’s national reconciliation, as the defeat of the group means the defeat of the violent option for all confl icting parties,” Ibrahim al- Ameri, an Iraqi political analyst, told Xinhua.

Despite the IS defeat in Mosul, experts warned that IS as a terror threat will not be over for a while, because it could seek to regroup or launch massive revenge attacks around the world.

Al- Jubouri said the loss of Mosul will push IS to fi nd an alternative land to continue its holy war against the Iraqi government.

IS militants could be forced to fl ee Iraq, and depend more on “sleeper cells” across urban areas to launch attacks in future, he said.

Netanel Avneri, an expert on the Middle East and Islam at Israel’s Bar Ilan University, told Xinhua that IS could resume behaving like a guerrilla organization, hiding in the desert area in western Iraq, riding on pickups, and launching sudden raids against targets before quickly escaping back to their bases.

Most experts agreed that the defeat on battlefi elds in the Middle East would motivate IS to launch revenge attacks, particularly in the West.

Itler Turan, professor of international relations at Istanbul Bilgi University in Turkey, told Xinhua that IS, like other terror groups in decline, will take dramatic actions “in order to remind everyone that they are alive and well.”