STUCK WITH ABE
As Japanese voters lose faith in their PM, political commentators opine there is no alternative
Less than six months ago, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appeared poised about staying in power until 2021. This would see him become Japan’s longest- serving leader and would cement a coveted place in history.
Now, the humbled hawk finds himself fighting for his political life or, in the words of one observer, scrambling to crawl out of a “hell hole.” What went wrong? A combination of factors including lingering political scandals, arrogance, loss of trust and tone deafness to voters’ everyday concerns at the expense of a nationalist agenda have clipped Abe’s wings.
But analysts say Japan’s comeback kid has an ace up his sleeve which is likely to seal his rule for at least another year and possibly longer. There is no one else. “There is an utter absence of an alternative political choice, either outside the LDP or quite frankly within it”, which is keeping him afloat, said Brad Glosserman, a Japan expert at think tank Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, referring to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party which Abe leads.
Indeed, the main opposition Democratic Party ( DP) is imploding, its very existence is seen as at stake. And while the LDP has no shortage of prime ministerial hopefuls, none of them are seen as strong enough to take on Abe right now.
And though many have swooned over the potential of the charismatic Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, she is just a year into the job and has her hands full with the 2020 Summer Olympics.
Trouble had been brewing slowly but anger spilled over last month when surveys showed a precipitous decline in support for Abe, with his approval ratings reaching their lowest point in his more than four years in office.
Historic drubbing
Accusations Abe wielded influence for a close friend in a business deal – which he has consistently denied – was a key contributing factor of his plummeting approval, as were other scandals involving his protégé and fellow hawk Tomomi Inada, the head of the defense ministry.
And just before the local Tokyo elections in early July at the capital’s municipal assembly – a bellwether for national sentiment – he further alienated voters by shouting down hecklers at a rally.
The result: the LDP suffered a historic drubbing.
Veteran analyst Minoru Morita, a harsh Abe critic who came up with the “hell hole” analogy, said Abe also suffers from predictable weariness as a long- serving leader.
“No matter the government in Japan, after three to four years, the people will grow tired of it,” he said.
Still, Morita believes that if Abe can get through the next year and stand for re- election as party leader in September 2018, he is likely to win as he has more internal support than even leading challengers.
Voters also appear to have become resigned toward Abe.
“In the end, he may be able to continue in the sense that there just isn’t anybody else,” said Tokyo resident Ayumi Aratake.
Abe last week reshuffled his cabinet ministers, a typical move by Japanese prime ministers in trouble.
He appointed a former defense chief to take over from Inada, who quit under fire the week before, embracing party critics. Publicly, he replaced swagger with humility.
‘ Listen to the people’
This move seems to have eased the bleeding. A slew of media opinion polls at the weekend showed support rates creeping up. So Abe has no need to call parliamentary elections until December 2018.
Whether loved or loathed, 62- year-
old Abe is a compelling figure and political blueblood with a grandfather and great uncle preceding him as prime minister.
He came back to power in December 2012 after a failed 2006- 07 attempt as leader. Some had written him off, but he won a rare second chance.
Abe brought an ambitious policy blitz with a catchy name – Abenomics – which is meant to slay growth-sapping deflation.
While the strategy has had some success, healthy annual price gains remain far off, while consumer spending is weak.
There has long been a feeling that Abe puts too much emphasis on matters dear to his conservative heart, such as revising Japan’s pacifist constitution and wiping away the shame of World War II defeat and occupation.
Glosserman sees a pattern of building up political capital with economic wins, only to see it quickly become squandered.
“Abe again has had to pivot back to taking care of things that matter to Japanese voters,” he said.
The prime minister seems to have gotten the message.
“I will listen to the voices of the people,” he vowed at a news conference after the cabinet shakeup, apologizing for the scandals that have rocked his government. “Reviving the economy is the top priority.”