What is the path to peace on the peninsula?
Editor’s Note:
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have continuously escalated and reached a new high after North Korea conducted another missile test last Wednesday. The Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies (CPCS), a Cambodiabased NGO, has produced a report called Strengthening Understanding through Dialogue: A Peacebuilding Approach to the
Korean Peninsula Conflict which provides an understanding of the key factors fueling the conflict and concludes by promoting the consideration of options available to the conflicting parties. It launched the report last Thursday with The Charhar Institute, inviting several scholars to discuss the topic. The Global Times has collected the opinions of four experts who spoke at the event.
Jia Qingguo, a member of the International Advisory Committee at the Charhar Institute and dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University
The Korean Peninsula issue is very serious these days with North Korea just having conducted another missile test. A peaceful solution is always a priority choice for all the countries.
All parties have made efforts in diplomatic methods and they are not over; we should try more.
However with all these efforts, the issue has not gotten better but worse, which is a question that we should think about. So what to do now? There are two ways. One is sanctions as the UN Security Council is discussing now, how to strengthen sanctions to punish North Korea. Another way is threat, which is often used by the US government, especially by US President Donald Trump himself.
Diplomatic efforts are still on their way as China sent Song Tao, special envoy of General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Xi Jinping, to North Korea and I think the US is probably also trying to make diplomatic contact with the nation.
Because the key point is North Korea’s nuclear issue is a really serious one and may end in serious results. As the UN continuously strengthens sanctions on North Korea, this possibly causes economic and political problems inside North Korea which is a threat to China.
With North Korea developing nuclear weapons, it may lead other countries such as South Korea and Japan to develop nuclear weapons – destroying the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons which threatens the world. So the issue is not just a threat to China, but to the world. So every method should be considered.
We should not only force North Korea to give up nuclear weapons, but also create the conditions for it to give up willingly. We need to offer benefits such as diplomatic recognition, security guarantee and economic aids. With all of these, North Korea may realize it could be a better option to give up nuclear weapons.
China is a party and also a victim of the issue and has enormous interests in this. As the closest country to North Korea, China has the responsibility and ability to do more because of its own interests.
Caroline Kearney, project officer (Korean Peninsula) at CPCS
As China well understands the conflict due to China’s constructive role for decades, the publication is mainly presented for the West, especially Washington. The conflict has been going for nearly 70 years. Many countries have contributed and are contributing to the conflict.
It seems that the conflict between the US and North Korea is also affected by competition between the US and China, especially in Northeast Asia.
The report comes to the conclusion that engagement dialogue is the only way to reduce tensions and avoid escalated tensions. There are a lot of US and international pressures on China to do something. As the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson and many other Chinese government officials have reiterated, the conflict is between Washington and Pyongyang.
We just want to promote conversation and share discussions about how to maybe resist the pressure and offer other ways forward rather than isolation and sanctions on North Korea, but perhaps a different way to engage in dialogue. Perhaps it could be helpful if we create a role for China as a mediator to help explain to Washington that China is not a party to the conflict and it is not on China to do something and that China is more of a mediator or a support system.
As South Korea and China repair diplomatic relations, there is more opportunity for cooperation on the conflict. Beijing and Seoul have made it clear that dialogue and negotiation is a way forward; they could make the messaging clear together and help the US understand it.
Su Hao, professor of the Department of Diplomacy, China Foreign Affairs University
On November 29, North Korea launched a new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, and if what North Koreans reported in their TV news is true, it really is an upgraded weapon and shows movement in North Korea. But from my perspective, the missile test this time has brought the Korean Peninsula to a tipping point.
In the past, there was the possibility that the US may use military measures to deal with the issue and it has already made detailed military plans. Once North Korea crosses the red line, the US will take action.
Now, it is near the tipping point. North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un declared the country had achieved a “historic cause” of becoming a nuclear state and I believe the country will be cautious about its next step. I think it may mean an opportunity has come and all parties can cooperate to find solutions and discuss the issues based on common interests to avoid further conflicts.
North Korea signaled that its nuclear weapons plan is finished and waited for the US reaction. I am optimistic about the future and there may be a turning point for the Korean Peninsula if every party deals with it rationally. The US and North Korea are both waiting to see who will compromise first when they reach the tipping point. Currently, it is hard for them to yield to each other and China, as a mediator, can provide another way for them to avoid further conflicts.
Emma Leslie, executive director of CPCS
We went to Pyongyang several times and I think we have underestimated North Korea. I realize it’s the people of North Korea that we underestimated. Over 70 years, they feel disrespected and lack recognition.
In Pyongyang, we learned how proud they are of those missile tests. Many people express and desire that once the tests are over, they could move onto economic development. And this is one of the big opportunities in front of us. If the international community could focus on the development of North Korea, there may be possibilities for dialogue. Moon Jae-in’s election as South Korea’s President is a significant moment in the process. We all wish his visit to Beijing will promote the process.
At such a critical moment, only big gestures can help unlock such situation. A dialogue between Beijing and Seoul could pave the way for the Washington-Pyongyang discussion.