Amid talks, hope sprouts on Korean Peninsula

High-level talks between North and South Korea have seen progress. After the South Korean delegation to Pyongyang returned to Seoul Tuesday, it announced that the two Koreas have agreed to hold a leaders’ summit in Panmunjom late April. According to the delegation, Pyongyang expressed willingness to talk to the US “in an open-ended dialogue to discuss the issue of denuclearization and to normalize relations with North Korea.” It clarified that it had no reason to retain nuclear weapons if “the military threat to North Korea is resolved” and the country’s security can be guaranteed.

It is the first time North Korea has shown its intention to denuclearize after a long period. The inter-Korean meeting to be convened on the countries’ border signals parity in negotiating status between the two sides and a firm resolve to achieve peace on the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea delegation also noted that Kim said he “understands” Seoul’s position on the joint military exercises with the US, which was postponed due to the Winter Olympics but expected to resume later this month.

North Korea would not conduct new nuclear or missile tests during talks and promised not to use nuclear and conventional weapons against the South. This indicates a major breakthrough for the Moon Jae-in administration.

Many people remain skeptical of Kim’s dramatic change in stance on nuke development and suspect Pyongyang is using a delaying tactic and trying to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul. It is doubtful whether resumption of talks would bring results or even escalate tensions on the peninsula.

Those who have witnessed how the North Korean nuclear issue evolved in the past 20 years, tend to take a waitand-see approach toward Pyongyang’s changing stance. However, it is still necessary to understand the following aspects at this critical juncture on the peninsula.

First, Pyongyang has developed nuclear weapons to safeguard its security. North Korea pursues nuke development because of a hostile security environment and hard lessons learnt from the fates of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. But theoretically, developing a nuclear program will not be the only choice for Pyongyang if better ways of achieving security are available.

Second, Trump’s saber-rattling is believed to have affected Kim’s policy. Pyongyang’s growing nuclear capability is considered a major threat to US security and hence boosts Washington’s resolve to resort to the military option, making Pyongyang more insecure.

Third, Pyongyang is facing unprecedented pressure caused by international sanctions. Escalating tensions may not lead to the collapse of North Korea’s regime, but prove unbearable for the country. The international community hasn’t shown any sign of relaxing sanctions against North Korea. In spite of being its most important trade partner, China has been strictly implementing UN Security Council resolutions against Pyongyang. Although South Korea applied for sanctions relief during the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Seoul exhibited no willingness to have the sanctions waived before denuclearization begins.

Fourth, convergence of strategic interests of China and the US on the peninsula has squeezed North Korea’s diplomatic space. Beijing and Washington have emphasized denuclearization in response to Pyongyang’s increasing nuclear capability and the resulting geopolitical uncertainty. Russia has limited influence on the situation on the peninsula. Therefore, Pyongyang does not have the backing of major powers over its nuclear program.

Fifth, the Moon Jae-in government’s soft stance on North Korea has given a chance to Pyongyang to ensure regime security via diplomatic talks. Seoul’s policy toward Pyongyang would be unimaginable if conservatives took power. However, Moon is determined to push for denuclearization. Perhaps this is what prompted Kim to change stance and agree to resume negotiations on denuclearization.

These moves will contribute to a turning point on the peninsula. Although Pyongyang remains reluctant to give up nuclear ambitions and may still use dialogue to buy time, it will likely lead to progress on denuclearization, a hardwon opportunity that the international community should seize to realize peace on the peninsula.

Apart from sustaining sanctions pressure on Pyongyang, the global community including the US must consider how to ensure North Korea’s regime security. As a recognized state, North Korea has the right to its security. Ensuring the North’s security is a prerequisite for denuclearization. Only when the parties reach clear agreements to guarantee the North’s security, can North Korea completely abandon its nuclear program, leading to peace on the peninsula.