Western approach handed Putin his victory
Vladimir Putin won the presidential elections in Russia again. Did it come as a surprise to the world community? No. The Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community of February predicted his probable next term in office. What was unexpected was the results of the election campaign. Putin had a landslide 76.69 percent of votes while another candidate who came second received 11.77 percent. Putin had more supporters than in the previous elections of 2012. It is interesting that over 90 percent of the residents of Crimea who joined Russia in 2014 voted for Putin.
What also makes this election peculiar is the fact that Moscow voters who are more skeptical about his presidency this time supported Putin by giving 1.5 times votes more than in 2012. The total voter turnout was a record of around 70 percent.
What can explain this overwhelming victory? The irony is that to a great extent the West handed Putin his victory. The tough Western approach toward Russia along with sanctions played into the Putin’s hands. The purpose of the Western policy was to change regime at maximum or change the political course at minimum in Russia. This approach backfired.
Western pressure did not split Russian society as Putin’s opponents hoped. It united the majority of the Russian population around its leader. Even many who did not support Putin preferred to stand by him fairly believing that change of regime under pressure from the outside may result in chaos, violence and economic collapse. For such a big country like Russia it might have catastrophic consequences.
The ongoing crisis in neighboring Ukraine after toppling Yanukovich in 2014 was another vivid example of what could happen to Russia. The Russian people realized that many Western leaders were not interested in a strong Russia with its independent policy but in a weak country and guided by the West as it was in the 1990s.
There were and still are Western accusations that Russia is a revisionist country. Its alleged goal is to change the world order built by the US and its allies after the end of the Cold War. Does Putin’s victory mean that Russia will follow the course? Obviously not. Russia experienced economic decline in the past several years. Only last year it had an economic growth of 1.5 percent. The Russian defense budget is 10 times smaller than the US and if one adds the budgets of US allies, the gap between Russia and Western allies will be enormous. Right after the election campaign, Putin publicly announced the reduction of defense expenses in 2018 and 2019. More funds will go to social and economic needs.
What implications does this have for Russian foreign policy and what will Russian foreign policy be like? First of all, Putin’s decision to cut defense spending deprives his opponents of arguments that Russian policy is militaristic and revisionist. The numbers indicate the opposite. One would be unreasonable to pursue such policy. Even his critics agree that Putin is a logical and rational leader. During his first meeting with the candidates for presidency after the elections Putin shared the outline of his policy with the public. First he confirmed that it would be based on national interests. Unlike the US, Russia does not have any intention to advance its values outside the country. Second, all disputes with Russian counterparts will be settled by political and diplomatic means. Third, Russia will pursue its policy on a mutually acceptable basis with respect to other states. The dialogue should have a constructive character. It is interesting that the US and its allies blame China for the same reasons as Russia. The current US national security strategy maintains, “China and Russia want to shape a world antithetical to US values and interests.” This criticism brings Russia and China together. The movement toward multipolarity is objective and meets the interests of both countries. Common challenges, interests and cooperation will pave the way to a more stable world. I believe that Putin in his next term will maintain friendly and mutually beneficial relations with China.