Globe-trotting diplomacy may not rescue Abe
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is increasingly tormented by a political scandal. As Japan’s first couple, he and his wife are allegedly involved in a suspicious sale in which an Abe crony purchased land from the government at an unbelievably low price. The scandal, which broke more than a year ago, in recent days has been fueled by the revelation of the Ministry of Finance’s falsification of documents related to the deal. The revelation has already led to the resignation of a high-ranking official and public apologies by both Abe and Aso Taro, minister of finance.
The resignation and apologies are seen by many as Abe shifting blame to the bureaucrats. Both opposition parties and the media show no intent of stopping digging away at the issue. The recurrence and escalation of the scandal have hurt Abe’s ratings. His public support has plunged below 40 percent, overtaken by his disapproval rate.
It is unclear whether this scandal will develop into criminal investigations, but it could yet destroy Abe’s political career. Although Abe exhibits no desire to resign, he must win the presidential election of his Liberal Democratic Party in September to stay prime minister. The scandal is making that victory less possible.
Abe still has a few cards to play in dealing with the domestic crisis: notably, foreign affairs. Since his re-ascent to the seat of prime minister, Abe has launched a splendid campaign of official foreign trips: “diplomacy with a bird’s eye view of the globe,” as he puts it. It has become a regular sight for Abe to depart for other countries even as the National Diet discusses important issues.
This year is no exception. Abe is scheduled to travel to the Middle East at the end of April, to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in May and that same month the Japanese government plans to host a trilateral summit of China, Japan and South Korea.
Abe is set to visit the US in April, his trump card. The issues raised between the two leaders may include trade, but the biggest concern, without doubt, will be North Korea. Now the Korean Peninsula situation is witnessing a dramatic turn. The seemingly imminent military conflict between the US and North Korea suddenly changed into a détente between two long-time adversaries, with South Korea as mediator.
Among all the major stakeholders in the North Korea nuclear issue, Japan exerts the least influence on North Korea, but absolutely not vice-versa. North Korea is always high on the agenda of the Japanese government and draws great public attention.
None of the other items on Abe’s foreign agenda seems as promising. Japan has limited, if no influence at all, in the Middle East. The Abe administration’s endeavor to solve the so-called “northern islands problem” and strike a peace treaty with Russia has reached a dead end, despite Abe’s meetings with Putin and use of economic cooperation as a bargaining chip.
Japan’s relationships with South Korea and China can hardly be called happy either. Abe was deeply upset by South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s decision to revoke the deal struck by the preceding Park Geun-hye administration and the Japanese government which was supposed to have brought an end to the “comfort women” issue. Abe’s right-wing ideology has also stalled improvement of the Sino-Japanese relationship.
Abe has been a sycophant of Trump since his election and boasted of their good relationship. Yet this relationship seems irrelevant to the unpredictable US president. Just recently Japan failed to be included on a list of countries temporarily exempted from punishing steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Trump even scorned Abe, saying “I’ll talk to Prime Minister Abe of Japan and others – great guy, friend of mine – and there will be a little smile on their face. And the smile is, ‘I can’t believe we’ve been able to take advantage of the United States for so long.’ So those days are over.”
It is more realistic to assume that Abe cannot talk Trump into anything if the latter doesn’t want it. If the US and North Korea pursue reconciliation in the near future, which seems possible, then the seemingly strong prime minister of Japan will lose all