Prime Minister Abe faces challenges to be re-elected party leader
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited US President Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Florida on April 17-18 for a third summit. Although they showed their close relationship by golfing again, Abe’s visit was fruitless diplomatically. Trump only promised verbally to raise the issue of Japanese nationals abducted by Pyongyang and the two leaders did not reach any agreement on the USJapan trade deficit or a US return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
That Abe made Time’s list of 100 Most Influential People for 2018 may be the biggest achievement of this visit.
The visit had special meaning for Abe. Mired in domestic and foreign headaches, some diplomatic results would have reduced domestic pressure. Just before the visit, Abe was blamed for a cronyism scandal and during the visit, media accused a top Japanese finance ministry official of sexually harassing a female journalist, shocking the public. Abe’s diplomacy obviously did not divert the public focus.
According to several media polls, public support for Abe’s cabinet has declined and support for him fell to 26.7 percent in a survey by private broadcaster Nippon TV, the lowest since he took office in December 2012. The job approval rating for Abe’s administration slid further to 30 percent in the latest Mainichi Shimbun opinion poll conducted April 21-22 and the ratio of those against the administration was 49 percent. From the perspective of domestic politics, Abe’s visit was a failure.
Although he is trapped in a dilemma of domestic and foreign policies and support for his cabinet is low, I don’t expect he will step down in a rush like he did in 2007. During his first tenure as prime minister, two direct reasons triggered his resignation. First, his Liberal Democratic Party in the upper parliament witnessed an election defeat and lost dominance in the Japanese Parliament in July 2007. Second, because of the election failure, criticism of Abe prevailed inside the party.
The situation now is totally different from that of 2007. Although the public support ratings are similarly low to those before Abe stepped down in 2007, his party still leads the National Diet of Japan and the opposition party is too weak to be a threat, bringing no pressure on Abe. Meanwhile, no member inside the party wants to challenge Abe and the major factions inside the party also advocate Abe’s re-election. It is not likely Abe will resign and so he will remain ruling.
During Abe’s visit to the US on April 17, Trump tweeted that he doesn’t “like” the TPP, but favors a bilateral free trade agreement. With Kim’s just-concluded visit to China, the upcoming TrumpKim summit and the meeting between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has left Japan marginalized.
Relations between China and Japan have improved. In April, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Japan. The bilateral high-level economic dialogue and the ChinaJapan Intergovernmental Consultation Mechanism on Cultural Exchange have both reopened. In May, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is expected to pay a formal visit to Japan coinciding with a trilateral summit with Japan and South Korea. The Abe government may attach importance to the Sino-Japan relationship to resolve his internal and external trouble. Due to unsatisfying political achievements, the unstable Trump administration and the Liberal Democrats’ internal election for party president in September, China is vital to the Abe government.
Unlike three years ago when he was re-elected president without a vote, Abe finds his position enormously weakened by domestic and foreign quagmires. The re-election in September determines whether Abe will become the country’s longest-serving leader and whether his constitutional revision can be started. Some 59 percent of respondents in a Mainichi poll wished someone else would take over as president in September. Unlike general elections to the House of Representatives and elections to the House of Councillors, Japanese people cannot participate in the party’s presidential election but their opinions will affect it. Although Abe has not met obvious obstacles for re-election, some alarm bells have rung for his rule.