Colombia heads for divisive runoff with peace deal at stake

Colombia headed for its most divisive presidential race in decades after right-winger Ivan Duque won Sunday’s first-round vote, triggering a runoff with leftist Gustavo Petro that could upset a historic peace deal or derail business friendly reforms.

It was the first time in the modern history of the conservative South American nation that a leftist candidate had reached the second round of a presidential vote, a prospect that has spooked some investors in Latin America’s fourth-largest economy in recent weeks.

Duque, a 41-year-old former official of the Washington-based Inter-American Development Bank, was the convincing winner of the ballot with 39 percent of votes, ahead of Petro, an outspoken former mayor of Bogota, on 25 percent, in line with polls.

However, Duque’s pledge to overhaul the 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) by scrapping immunity for those convicted of crimes has worried many Colombians, weary after five decades of conflict that killed about 200,000 people.

Though outgoing President Juan Manuel Santos won the Nobel Peace Prize for forging the accord, it deeply divided the nation of more than 50 million people and was narrowly rejected in a popular vote before Congress finally approved a modified version.

Petro, and three other losing candidates, have backed the deal, meaning Duque may need to moderate his position to attract wavering voters.

Center-left mathematician Sergio Fajardo, who came third, with 24 percent of votes, declined to endorse either candidate for the second round, saying his supporters would make up their own minds.

Political pundits in Colombia said that if June’s vote went along ideological lines, the votes of the center-left could be enough for Petro to seriously challenge Duque, if he can dodge his rival’s accusations of radicalism.

“Petro was quite clearly behind Duque in the vote, so that will reassure the markets,” Camilo Perez, head of economic studies at Banco de Bogota.

“But the fact that Fajardo was so close to Petro may generate nervousness, as his approach is probably closer to Petro’s and that could send votes his way.”

The winner of the second round will face an intimidating array of challenges, from stubbornly low economic growth to threats to Colombia’s prized investment grade credit rating, besides difficulties in implementing the peace accord.