How to prevent another world war
Today’s world politics is dominated by impulses, perceptions and emotions, rather than carefully and rationally weighed calculations of real interests and benefits. In recent years, world politics is staged with drama and emotional turbulence. The reality show, in which politicians are the leading actors and actresses, never stops. From Brexit, Korean Peninsula, to the US-China trade conflict, our nerves were kept taut. Increasingly, realpolitik is replaced by identity politics. An enemy or friend is more likely to be defined by our subjective perceptions, rather than real interests.
The overwhelming information explosion brought about by technological revolutions shortens our attention span and challenges our cognitive capacity. Moreover, political, commercial and media campaigns constantly feed this short-sighted and consumerist nature of information processing. Partial facts, fake news and rumors with strong emotional stimuli such as “threat,” “crisis” and “sabotage” get on our nerves.
It seems that our world leaders are never tired of threatening or bluffing each other, with escalating diplomatic and military actions, sometimes even at the cost of the threat of a nuclear war. The farce between Trump and Kim Jong-un dramatically shifted from “pushing nuclear buttons” to faceto-face talks in June. And “suddenly” things changed again. Now people are very nervous and anxious about what will happen after Trump cancelled the summit recently, but later issued foggy statements saying the meeting stays in keeping with schedule.
The uncertainty and confusion constantly trigger anxiety in people, and more dangerously anger. As a result of both momentums, people are craving for an emotional outlet, a scapegoat, and a simple, immediate conclusion as to who to blame and who is our enemy. When animals feel they are under threat, it is fight or flight. That’s the psychological understanding of animal nature. Increasingly, people from different corners of the world start to worry about the possibility of another worldwide armed conflict. When Thucydides’ Trap became a topic of discussion, it seems that our destiny is predetermined without any possibility of changing this “inevitable” trajectory. And the only question is when is the next Assassination at Sarajevo – the event that triggered World War I. Have we passed a point of no return?
No, we could stop it. Humanity can save us from entering another vicious cycle.
Is there a way to calm down our politicians? Do we have to suffer the loss of millions of soldiers? Do they really have to die to wake up our politicians? Is there a way to visualize the consequences and casualties of a devastating war without actually going through the blood and fire?
Thinking about these questions, I couldn’t help recall a thought-provoking story that I read when I was a little girl. Probably, we can draw some inspiration from ancient political philosophy and wisdom.
The story took place in the Spring and Autumn Period in ancient China about 2,300 years ago. Back then, China was divided into smaller and larger warring states. Over 500 years, these states were constantly forging alliances and fighting each other. The story was between two states – Chu and Song. Chu was a hegemonic and aggressive state in this period. Song was a state on the decline that took to following rituals. Driven by expansionist ambitions, Chu planned to invade Song with its newly acquired cutting-edge weaponry and military inventions. Of Chu’s new war devices were large and strong scaling ladders. Back then, most Chinese cities were surrounded by walls and fortresses.
When the news spread, other states were all scared by and worried over Chu’s hegemony. It was impossible for Song and its people to escape its doom, until an unexpected guest Mozi came to visit Chu. Like Confucius, Mozi was a famous ancient Chinese philosopher and a strong advocate for “universal love” and peace among warring states.
Mozi met Chu’s general. To persuade him not to attack Song, Mozi sat on the floor, put his belt up and said, “Let’s imagine this is the wall. No matter how you attack, I can defend.” The general sat down and they started to use smaller wood pieces as different weapons and devices to imitate the war. The general used nine ways to attack, and each time Mozi used different method to successfully defend and fight back. The King of Chu watched the whole simulation process and eventually dropped his idea of invading Song. No one wants to jump into a war when losses outweigh gains.
The story and the political philosophy behind it is powerful and inspiring. Without losing a single soldier, two countries avoided a bloody war by visualizing and simulating the possible scenarios in armed conflicts, with a belt and pieces of wood. Bearing in mind the consequences and casualties of a possible war, they eventually reached an agreement and peace was preserved.
To revive this story in our times may sound naïve and childish. But is that anyway we can solve a crisis without actually firing a bullet? Is that a way to let our politicians see the ruins and destruction, as well as blood and tears, so they could have second thoughts about of launching or even threatening another war?
I found an interesting answer to my puzzles after a visit to the Silicon Valley. My friend showed me their latest Virtual Reality (VR) handset in the public exhibition area. Modern technology like VR can provide us a full range of realistic experiences with images, sounds and other sensations in a simulation.
With the help of modern VR technology, we may have the chance to recreate the ancient political wisdom of preserving peace without going through violent conflicts.
If security briefings, military tests and UN debates are not convincing for our politicians, we could add the emotional dimension to peace talks of conflict resolution – let them “experience” the “alleged” war that they both advocated. Not in our world, but in a virtual space.
Imagine, if there is still a Trump-Kim summit, we could give each a VR handset. They could run several simulations of potential scenarios ranging from diplomatic peace talks to escalated nuclear wars. With images, sounds, 3D-situations, soldiers and weaponries are not simply numbers on the paper. The effect of wars on soldiers, innocent civilians and cities are vivid and appalling. They would have a better understanding of what “touching the red button” means to the whole world. They could see the ripped apart bodies of soldiers and hear the wails of children and women.
And hopefully after taking off the headset, they could make a better decision and no longer threaten to unleash the weapons of mass destruction for psychological games and political gambling.
People in our time often take peace for granted. War memories and traumas are inevitably lost over generations. Many of us can hardly imagine what life would be during wars. Modern technology probably can recreate the visual and emotional understanding of consequences and casualties of wars and conflicts. The intention of this article is not to promote modern technology in conflict resolution, but to stimulate imagination and creativity for providing an alternative thinking to treasure and preserve our precious peacetime.