Stability of the Balkans matters for China
The end of the Cold War saw the Balkan Peninsula ravaged by civil wars. The disintegration of Yugoslavia led to the creation of several new countries amid death, injuries, trauma and pain. Even after a pause in hostilities in 1995 following the end of the Bosnian conflict, peace was not established. The 1999 bombardment of Serbia by NATO war planes due to Serbian insistence on keeping Kosovo in its territory brought back the painful memories. Belgrade’s defeat marked the end of the war period, although tensions between countries and religions in this region of southeastern Europe continued.
One of the main reasons why the Balkans have been relatively stable since 1999 is the aspiration of states to join the European Union. Some countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania are part of the EU while others such as Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), as the UN name of the country goes, Montenegro and Serbia are watching from outside and striving to join the coveted club. In recent years, the socalled enlargement fatigue is further hindering this effort.
Russia has started to expand its influence by cooperating with countries such as Serbia and FYROM and benefiting from the common religion. For its part, China has successfully looked for new opportunities for its Belt and Road initiative.
While the main motivation of the Russian policy in the Balkans remains unclear, the Chinese approach is straightforward. Beijing is not interested in averting the pro-EU or pro-NATO orientation of Balkan countries but sees stability as a necessary prerequisite for investment. It is thus closely monitoring developments in FYROM, which last year was paralyzed by a serious political crisis.
FYROM is aspiring to enter both the EU and NATO. This has not yet happened because of its disagreement with Greece on its permanent name. The name dispute first came to the forefront in 1992 and lasted for some time. As Macedonia is a Balkan region comprising, inter alia, a large part of northern Greece, Athens does not accept the name Macedonia to be attributed to a country. So, the two sides, Athens and Skopje, have been for years engaged in difficult negotiations to find a solution under the UN aegis.
After the declaration of independence in 1991, FYROM was recognized by its constitutional name “Macedonia” by several countries, including China and the US. It was unable to enter the EU and NATO with this name though. That is because Greece had the upper hand and could block this Euro-Atlantic orientation of its northern neighbor. Before the NATO Summit of April 2008 Athens persuaded its allies to link the future invitation of FYROM with the need for a settlement of the name dispute under the UN umbrella. So, FYROM had no alternative but to make a compromise, which came in the spring and summer of 2018. The new government of FYROM led by moderate Prime Minister Zoran Zaev did not miss the opportunity. Being under pressure from both the EU and the US it abandoned its previous hard-line stance. Subsequently, Zaev agreed with his Greek counterpart Alexis Tsipras to settle differences. Under the agreement, the new official and constitutional name of FYROM will be “North Macedonia” and shall be used “erga omnes.” This means that all countries currently recognizing FYROM as “Macedonia” will have to modify this recognition into “North Macedonia.” Subject to parliamentary ratifications and constitutional amendments, the road to the EU and NATO will be open.
All this is good news for China. Cooperation between Greece and FYROM can only facilitate future China-led projects. The construction of a high-speed railway connecting Piraeus to Budapest will pass through the two countries. The potential linkage between the Danube and the Aegean with some Chinese funds also requires bilateral collaboration. Last but not least, the “16+1” initiative will be further boosted as Greece will not have to deal with “Macedonia” but with “North Macedonia.”