British PM confronts dilemma over tricky Brexit negotiations

The British government and the European Union (EU) have made their negotiating stances over the latest stage of Brexit clear, leaving the summer open for a period of behind-thescenes negotiations, according to a leading Brexit expert.

“There will be a lot of posturing over the summer, and also a lot of backroom negotiating. Away from the headlines and the newspapers the two sides will be talking,” Professor Anand Menon of the independent Brexit think-tank UK in a Changing Europe told Xinhua in a recent interview.

“I expect the two sides will talk, and there will be remarkably little of that leaked to the press,” he said.

The incentives are there for both sides to reach an agreement and one of two things can happen, said Menon, who is professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King's College, London.

“One side or the other gives or there is no deal and neither side wants no deal.”

Menon said that the talks were likely to center around achieving a Brexit deal that could be described as similar to the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta), or the EU-Norway trade arrangement.

Ceta allows both sides to enter into separate deals with other partners.

It also puts Canada outside the EU's customs union and single market, within which there is tariff-free trade and free movement of people across national borders.

Norway is a member of the European Free Trade Area and as such has full access to the single market but is not in the EU. It pays a contribution to the EU budget to gain that access and must follow EU trade rules.

People from across the EU are free to live and work in Norway, but it is exempt from EU rules on agriculture, fisheries, justice and home affairs.

“What the British government is counting on is that when both sides get closer to the deadline and EU member states are forced to give this issue a bit more attention than now, because most have other things on their minds right now, they will start to say that they need to be a bit more flexible,” said Menon.

“What the EU will assume is that as both sides get nearer to that time the British government will start to say ‘we will need to choose from the options on the table.'”

“For Prime Minister May that is a dilemma, because the options on the table are either a slightly watered down version of the Canada Deal, watered down because there is not enough time to negotiate even the services provision of the Canada Deal, or an even more advanced version of the Norway Deal, and that is more advanced because to accommodate Northern Ireland you need the customs union and elements of agriculture,” Menon said.

Menon says he believes the EU is offering something around those two options, but the British government will be focused on seeking some kind of third option.

“The British government thinks that if it can involve the member states it may be able to get a third option somewhere in the middle. We do not know with any certainty yet which way it will go.”

The article is from the Xinhua News Agency. opinion@ globaltimes.com.cn