Knife attack on Brazilian presidential candidate can be a game-changer

The knife attack against Brazilian presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro on Thursday could have unforeseen repercussions in the upcoming October 7 election, according to Brazilian experts.

Carlos Pereira, professor of political science at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), told Xinhua that “it’s bad news that a candidate for president is the target of an attack against his life.”

Bolsonaro, candidate for Brazil’s Social Liberal Party, was stabbed in the abdomen Thursday by a man, while taking part in a campaign rally in the city of Juiz de Fora in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais.

The far-right politician, who is leading in the polls, was taken to a local hospital where he underwent surgery.

Doctors there said his condition was stable and he was transferred by plane to a hospital in Sao Paulo on Friday.

He is expected to remain there for a week to 10 days.

“The attack could change the outcome of the elections. Bolsonaro leads the polls for the first round of voting, but he loses in practically every scenario in the second round, but that has the possibility of changing as of today. That’s a huge shock for the elections,” Pereira said.

He added that “the effects the attack can have will depend on who the assailant is.”

Police arrested Adelio Obispo de Oliveira, 40, following the attack and were in the process of evaluating his mental state.

“The causes are the radicalization of the political process happening in Brazil, without a doubt,” he said.

For his part, Marco Aurelio Nogueira, doctor of political science at the University of Sao Paulo, also emphasized the importance of the attack.

“The rest of the presidential candidates should exploit this as an alarm so that the society does not act in a more violent manner, whether that’s in the electoral campaign or in everyday life. It’s frightening,” Nogueira said.

“Things were already surpassing the reasonable limit in the arena of verbal debate, but when they reach this level we should be setting off all the alarms. Brazilian society doesn’t deserve that the electoral process end with this type of violence,” he said.

Nogueira pointed out that Brazil “had never had an attack like this before and it provoked international repercussions resulting in making the country’s image look even worse.”

“In terms of empathy, Bolsonaro’s approval rating should go up while his disapproval – which was very high – should go down. The problem is that he will be off the campaign trail for several days, and the lack of media coverage and being out campaigning could hurt him,” he said.

Nogueira said “the martyrdom of the candidate is evident” but he wasn’t sure if it would be enough to help the candidate win the election.

“In 2014, socialist Eduardo Campos died in a plane accident in the middle of the campaign, and his vice president, who replaced him, didn’t win,” he said.

Fernando Schuler, professor of political science at Insper, a leading institution of higher education in Brazil that focuses on business, economics and engineering, said “the greatest risk from this sad episode, is that it produces an escalation in political violence.”

“It was positive to see the reaction of the 12 presidential candidates who denounced the attack. Speculations on the impact on the election are premature,” Schuler said.

“What happened to Bolsonaro is the result of political tensions and the radicalized political rhetoric. It’s not justified by any means, but it creates a climate where an unstable person commits a violent act,” he said.

Schuler said he doesn’t believe the attack will destroy Bolsonaro’s favorable view on weapons, “mainly because he is now the victim and can use it in his favor during his campaign.”

“The problem isn’t so much the polarization, it’s the political violence. The other candidates should come together with him in the name of political peace. A disputed election is one thing, a disputed election amid violence is another,” Schuler said.