Despite heated rhetoric, Israel and Lebanon won’t enter into military confrontation

It is not in the interests of Lebanon or Israel to fight a war, Lebanese geopolitical analysts told Xinhua.

“The threats between the two countries are nothing more than rhetoric and nobody really wants to start a war,” retired General Karim Antoine told Xinhua. Antoine said that any war taking place now will be costly and destructive for both countries.

Brigadier General Elias Hanna, senior lecturer at the American University of Beirut and Notre Dame University in Lebanon, reiterated Antoine’s remarks by saying that Lebanon and Israel do not want to go to war.

“The Lebanese front is stable today and it is not in the interest of Lebanon to change the rules of the game,” said Hanna, adding that Israel will not go to war unless it is sure it will be 100 percent capable of eradicating Hezbollah. “Israel cannot guarantee its victory now.”

“It also has to assess the cost of such an attack,” he noted while adding that Israel cannot go into a long war with Hezbollah because its economy will deteriorate since it is mostly based on exports.

According to Hanna, Israel is also aware that Hezbollah has acquired expertise through participation in the war in Syria.

“This is why I believe that threats between the two countries are only rhetoric,” he said.

Relations between Lebanon and Israel have been strained in recent months, especially after Israel’s construction of a border wall and Lebanon’s oil and gas exploration work near disputed waters.

Israeli leaders have stepped up warnings to Hezbollah, Lebanon and Iran in recent weeks. As a result, head of the Lebanese army threatened to do whatever it takes to fight aggression from Israel’s coastal city of Tel Aviv.

Israel’s threats also prompted Hezbollah Leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to say that Hezbollah is not a “war fanatic” but reiterated its readiness to defend Lebanon against any future Israeli aggression.

“Today we are more confident than ever before, and we are stronger than the Israeli army,” he previously said in a televised speech.

Analysts interviewed by Xinhua said that Israel is protecting itself by preventing Iran from establishing bases in Syria.

“Also, Israel is hitting any weapons convoy coming to Hezbollah before they reach Lebanon,” said Antoine.

Israel has previously warned Iran after they discovered that it is using civil aviation to send material to manufacture rockets in Lebanon, Antoine added.

Hanna said that since 2006, Israel has been working to stop any attempt to deter its security by preventing weapons from reaching Lebanon.

Israel struck in Syria on Saturday night, targeting an area near the airport in Damascus, Syrian state media reported.

The missile attack targeted an arms depot near the airport where new weapons recently arrived for the Iranians or Lebanon’s Hezbollah, it said.

Israel has not officially commented on the attack or confirmed its involvement.

General Khalil Helou told Xinhua that Israel and Iran are already in a state of war in Syria.

“I do not think that Israel will be willing to pay money to start a war against Lebanon which is very costly,” he said.

Helou said Lebanon will face various challenges if it decides to wage a war against Israel.

“Lebanon may risk losing US military support,” Helou said.