Denuclearization declaration welcomed

Business people in China cautious about sanctions still in place in NK

A declaration at the conclusion of a summit of the two Koreas promising more steps toward a nuclear-free peninsula was met with more caution than optimism by a spectrum of ordinary people affected by the issue interviewed by the Global Times reporter on Thursday.

The declaration signed by South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Wednesday during Moon’s three-day visit to Pyongyang introduces new measures such as the permanent destruction of North Korea’s main Yongbyon nuclear facility if the US takes corresponding action.

The declaration was well-received by China, the US, Japan and Russia, who expect the document to promote the denuclearization of the peninsula.

China strongly supports the declaration, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Thursday.

Wang also hailed efforts by Pyongyang and Seoul to free the peninsula of military and nuclear threats.

Zheng Jiyong, director of the Center for Korean Studies of Fudan University in Shanghai, told the Global Times on Thursday that if North Korea does make a breakthrough on denuclearization, “the punitive sanctions from international society on Pyongyang are likely to be relaxed or reduced, which will significantly improve the country’s foreign investment environment.”

But ordinary residents and business people interviewed by the Global Times from North Korea’s key economic neighbors – South Korea and China – were more circumspect than the experts and officials.

“North Korea expects economic support from South Korea and the US in return for its denuclearization activities,” Kim Dong-man, chairman of the Seoul-based Bogo International, told the Global Times.

“However, we need to see more action, not promises or goodwill, to spend our money on a land that still faces international sanctions.”

People in Dandong, a northeastern China city that borders North Korea, were by now largely numb to positive messages, Zhang Xu, a Dandong real estate agent told the Global Times on Thursday.

“People in Dandong have heard too much ‘good news’ and ‘good signals’ too many times, but business with North Korea remains stalled as the international sanctions are still in place,” Zhang said.

“Though the declaration is a good signal, it is still far from real action, and the investment and trade environment in North Korea will not change until the US lifts its sanctions.”

Dandong real estate rose about 2,000 yuan ($292.4) to about 6,000 yuan a square meter in late April after North Korea announced it would focus on economic development, Zhang said.

Dandong and Hunchun residents complained that optimism brought speculators from other parts of China to invest in local real estate, making house prices rocket soar.

A customs official in Hunchun, a northeastern city bordering North Korea, told the Global Times on condition of anonymity, “What we care about most is when will the sanctions be removed, especially those relevant to aquatic products and restricting labor from North Korea.”

There are still reasons to be optimistic, said Li Shenglin, head of the Dandong-based Linfeng Trade Company.

“US President Donald Trump needs peace on the Korean Peninsula as a political asset for his mid-term election and he needs support from Kim,” Li said. China needs North Korea to have a more favorable environment for investors, Li believed.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un jointly signed a joint declaration on the second day of Moon’s visit to North Korea. They held a joint press conference that revealed several unprecedented commitments from Pyongyang. The most significant one is Kim’s promise to visit Seoul this year. This would be the first time a top North Korean leader will visit South Korea. This has three historic implications.

First, the decision reflects Kim’s courage and determination to allow North Korean people to see the development gap between the North and South. The possible effect on the North Korean public of getting to know the economic gap has been a long-standing concern for the North Korean leader. With full video coverage of Kim’s Seoul visit, North Koreans will witness directly the stunning prosperity of South Korea. In other words, North Korean leadership is ready to recognize the lag in development and will embark on the path to reform and opening-up.

It was reported that Kim apologized to Moon for the less than adequate hospitality due to resource constraints in comparison with developed countries. The public acknowledgement of backwardness is seen as a significant signal to North Korean people that it is time to change the country’s focus from military build-up to economic development.

Second, Kim’s visit to Seoul would definitely lead to further specific measures compared with this summit. The Pyongyang joint declaration includes an agreement by North Korea to permanently dismantle its Dongchang-ri missile engine test site and a promise to shut down the Yongbyon nuclear facility depending on corresponding measures by the US. The promise to permanently shut the missile engine test site was made without a US promise, which signals North Korea’s intent of showing that inter-Korean dynamics would have their own life.

This gesture not only provided Moon strong support for his domestic audience, but also created a favorable atmosphere for Kim’s upcoming visit to South Korea. At their meeting, Kim praised Moon for his efforts at facilitating the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore, which highlighted the South Korean president’s role as an inevitable mediator.

This political message is helpful for Moon as he has been grilled by conservative skeptics for the slow progress on denuclearization after the Singapore summit. The Moon government is arguing that the lack of progress is a clear evidence of the necessity of a change in approach, which means that denuclearization and lifting sanctions must go hand-in-hand.

Third, Kim’s promise to visit South Korea is lending an incentive and opportunity for US President Donald Trump to hold a second US-North Korea summit. Like President Moon, Trump has been criticized by hawkish skeptics as naïve man for holding a meeting with Kim in Singapore without conditions. They attacked Trump for being purportedly cheated by North Korea as nothing has changed after the talks. Kim understands it well and has worked hard to provide justification for Trump to hold a second summit.

After the Singapore summit, North Korea has shown several good gestures, including the demolition of one nuclear test site and dismantling of a missile launch facility. The return of the remains of US soldiers from the Korean War (1950-53) and the release of American citizens were interpreted by Trump as unilateral compromises made by North Korea to silent his domestic critics. The KimMoon summit in Pyongyang was hailed by Trump immediately, which could be a convincing prelude for his second meeting with Kim.

In the past decades, the central question on the Korean Peninsula issue has been whether North Korea is inclined to reforms. But now the focus would be more on how the US and President Trump could grasp this historic opportunity to make change happen earlier and smoother by skillfully navigating US domestic politics.

The author is associate professor of National Niigata University Japan and senior fellow, Institute of Advanced Area Studies and Global Governance, Beijing Foreign Studies University, China. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn